CANADIAN MONEY BRIEF • Friday, October 30, 2026
GDP lands this morning, the U.S. tariff list gets reshuffled, and the loonie is at a six-week high. Here are the five things Canadians should know today.
1GDP day: will August show the economy bouncing back?
Statistics Canada releases August GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, along with an early read on September and the third quarter. Economists expect growth of 0.2%, a bounce from the flat reading in July. The data will only partly capture the 50% U.S. tariffs, which started Aug. 22. Meanwhile, Thursday's payroll data showed employment down 49,600 (-0.3%) in August, after a 15,700 drop in July.
What it means for you: The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% on Wednesday. Soft jobs plus a hike is the squeeze to watch: variable-rate mortgage and HELOC payments are rising while the job market cools. A weak GDP print could cool talk of more hikes; a strong one could keep it alive.
2The U.S. tariff list changes today, but it's a swap, not a retreat
A White House proclamation reshuffles which Canadian goods pay the 50% Section 338 duties, effective today (Oct. 30). Plywood, plastic wrap, cardboard boxes and food-handling machinery come off the list. Six categories go on, including chest-type freezers, valves, carpets and waste products. It is the third change in three months, and the steel and auto talks are still ongoing ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms.
What it means for you: Exposure shifts from forest products and packaging toward appliances, building materials and light manufacturing. If you work in or invest in one of those sectors, check which side of the list you're on. For shoppers, expect price changes on affected U.S.-bound or imported goods to show up with a lag.
3Loonie hits a six-week high as oil holds near US$102
The Canadian dollar closed Thursday around 71.5 cents US, with USD/CAD near 1.396 this morning. The Bank of Canada hike narrowed the gap between Canadian and U.S. two-year yields to roughly 128 basis points, from about 160 earlier this month. U.S. crude settled around US$102 a barrel on hopes of U.S.-Iran peace talks.
What it means for you: A stronger loonie helps cross-border shopping, U.S. travel and U.S.-dollar purchases, but it won't fix pump prices while oil stays above US$100. If you have a U.S.-dollar bill or trip coming up, today's rate is the best in about six weeks.
4TSX slips 16 points as gold miners sell off and U.S. tech stumbles
The S&P/TSX Composite fell 16.06 points to 36,249.03 on Thursday. Gold slid US$18.70 to US$4,031.90 an ounce, dragging Kinross (-6.3%) and Agnico Eagle (-4.1%). In New York, Alphabet fell 13% after missing third-quarter estimates and the Nasdaq dropped 1.4%.
What it means for you: If your TFSA or RRSP leans on gold miners or big U.S. tech, this is what concentration risk looks like on a bad day. A one-day move isn't a reason to trade, but it is a good moment to check how much of your portfolio rides on one theme.
5Canada-EU summit wraps in Montreal with digital trade on the table
Prime Minister Mark Carney is concluding a summit with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa, with announcements expected on digital trade and academic exchanges. A joint declaration reportedly dropped a proposal for associate EU membership. Conservatives note that nine of the EU's 28 countries have yet to ratify the decade-old trade deal with Canada.
What it means for you: This won't change your grocery bill this week. But it matters for the longer story: the more Canadian exporters can sell outside the U.S., the less each tariff headline hits jobs and wages at home.
On the radar: U.S. midterm elections Tuesday, Nov. 3 • Federal Budget 2026 Thursday, Nov. 5 • Clocks fall back this Sunday in most of Ontario (parts of Western Canada have dropped the change).
Market figures are Thursday closes and are for information only. This is not financial advice. Sources: Statistics Canada, Canadian Press, Baystreet.ca, Reuters via InvestingCube, Flexport.
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