Sunday, October 4, 2026
Markets are closed, but the week ahead is loaded: Quebec votes tomorrow, the Fed's minutes land Wednesday and Canada's September jobs report arrives Friday. Here are the five things that matter for your wallet.
1. A weak U.S. jobs report cooled rate-hike fears and snapped the TSX's four-day slide
U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, well short of the roughly 84,000 economists expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. Traders now see another Fed hike in October as a long shot, after the Fed raised rates 25 basis points on Sept. 16.
The S&P/TSX Composite gained 347.89 points (+1.0%) Friday to close at 35,502.65, led by industrials (+1.8%), tech (+1.7%) and materials (+1.6%), but it still finished the week down 482 points (-1.3%). On Wall Street the Dow rose 0.49% to 51,176.96 and the S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72, while the Nasdaq (+1.2%) was the only major average to end the week higher.
What it means for you: Softer U.S. data eases pressure on bond yields, which helps anyone with a variable-rate loan or a mortgage renewal coming up. But one strong day doesn't erase a down week, so it's a poor signal for changing your portfolio.
2. Ontario pump prices jumped about 14¢ a litre in two days
Gas rose 7¢ a litre in Ottawa on Friday to an average of 185¢, with another 7¢ forecast Saturday to 192.7¢, according to Canadians for Affordable Energy's Dan McTeague via CTV News. CP24 reported the GTA heading to about 192¢ as well. Brent crude settled at US$102.25 on Friday and WTI at US$91.11, even after G7 leaders signalled a coordinated release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel over four months. The federal fuel excise tax suspension remains in place through Jan. 31, 2027.
What it means for you: A 14¢ jump adds about $7 to a 50-litre fill-up, or roughly $28 a month if you fill up weekly. Ottawa prices briefly touched about 192¢ two weeks ago before dropping about 10¢ with the switch to winter-blend gasoline, so this is a return to recent highs rather than a new record. Filling up midweek, when prices tend to dip, can trim the bill.
3. The Bank of Canada's Oct. 28 decision is close to a coin flip
The policy rate has sat at 2.25% since October 2025, and markets put the odds of an Oct. 28 hike at roughly even. Statistics Canada reported last week that GDP was flat in July, with an early estimate of +0.2% for August. RBC's base case is a hold through the end of 2026, though it says risks are tilted toward earlier hikes, and Capital Economics also expects a hold but calls it a close call. The next clue is Friday's September jobs report: market watchers expect a small gain of roughly 5,000 to 9,000 jobs, with unemployment around 6.4% to 6.5%.
What it means for you: If your variable-rate mortgage payment floats with prime (4.45%), each 0.25-point hike adds roughly $65 to $70 a month per $500,000 borrowed. Fixed rates follow bond yields rather than the Bank of Canada directly, and those have already been climbing. If a renewal is coming, ask your lender about a rate hold now.
4. The loonie is hovering near 70 U.S. cents
The Canadian dollar traded around 70.2 U.S. cents Friday, with USD/CAD near 1.4255 at the close, down from about 72.4 cents on Sept. 8, the day Canada's retaliatory tariffs took effect. The trade dispute is still unresolved: U.S. duties of 50% on roughly C$28 billion of Canadian goods have been in place since Aug. 22, and the U.S. ban on most Canadian alcohol imports took effect Sept. 29.
What it means for you: US$100 now costs about C$142, so U.S. travel, U.S. websites and U.S.-dollar subscriptions are pricier. On the flip side, the weaker loonie boosts the Canadian-dollar value of any U.S. stocks or ETFs you hold. Consider converting currency in advance if you have a U.S. trip booked.
5. Quebec votes tomorrow, Alberta votes Oct. 19, and Ottawa just fast-tracked a pipeline
The Parti Québécois leads Quebec polls at about 30%, with the Liberals around 24% to 26% and the CAQ near 21%. The proposed Churchill Falls power deal is on a tight timeline: Quebec's National Assembly is scheduled to reconvene Nov. 17. In Alberta, voters answer ten questions on Oct. 19, including a non-binding one on whether to begin the legal process toward a future separation referendum. An Ipsos poll from Sept. 18 to 22 found 70% would choose to remain, 20% would begin the process and 10% were undecided. Separately, on Thursday Prime Minister Mark Carney designated the Pacific Link pipeline, a million-barrel-a-day line from Alberta to a southern B.C. tanker terminal, a project of national interest, with a construction target of September 2027.
What it means for you: None of this changes your budget tomorrow, but election-night headlines can move the loonie in the short term. The pipeline is years from carrying oil, so don't expect any relief at the pump from it.
Dates to watch
Mon, Oct. 5: Quebec election (polls close 8 p.m.)
Wed, Oct. 7: Fed minutes from the September meeting
Fri, Oct. 9: Canada's September jobs report
Mon, Oct. 12: Thanksgiving, TSX closed
Mon, Oct. 19: Alberta referendum
Wed, Oct. 28: Bank of Canada rate decision, 9:45 a.m. ET
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Canada, Yahoo Finance, Baystreet, CNBC, Bloomberg, EnergyNow, CTV News, CP24, CBC, RBC Economics, Ipsos. Figures as of Oct. 2–3, 2026. For information only; this is not financial advice.
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