5 Things to Know Today: 68,300 Jobs Lost, Loonie at 18-Month Low, BoC Hike Odds Fade

 

CANADIAN MONEY BRIEF | SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2026

Canada's job losses pile up, the loonie slides to an 18-month low and the Bank of Canada's rate-hike case weakens. Here's what matters for your wallet this long weekend.

1Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September

Statistics Canada reported 68,300 fewer jobs in September, far worse than the roughly 9,200 gain economists polled by Reuters expected. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4%. It follows a 41,700 drop in August, which means Canada has now lost a net 41,200 jobs in 2026 (versus a gain of 211,300 at this point last year).

Education plus health care and social assistance lost 58,400 jobs, manufacturing fell by 12,700 and youth employment (ages 15 to 24) dropped by 48,000. The participation rate slid to 64.8%, its lowest in 29 years outside the pandemic.

What it means for you: Average hourly wages for permanent employees rose 2.3% year over year, which is slower than August inflation of 3.0%. If your pay isn't keeping up with prices, a tighter budget and a bigger cash cushion matter more than chasing returns right now.

2The Bank of Canada's Oct. 28 hike just got less likely

Before the jobs report, markets put roughly a 40% chance on a quarter-point hike at the Bank of Canada's Oct. 28 decision. By Friday afternoon that was down to about 25%, according to LSEG data cited by The Canadian Press. The policy rate has been 2.25% for nearly a year, and traders now see the next possible move at the December meeting. BMO's Douglas Porter says "watchful waiting" is the right stance, and TD expects a hold this month.

The next big data point is September CPI on Monday, Oct. 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET. August inflation was 3.0%.

What it means for you: A hold keeps variable-rate mortgage and HELOC payments steady. For scale, a quarter-point hike adds about $21 a month in interest on every $100,000 of variable-rate debt. Renewing soon? Don't assume the odds stay this low until Oct. 19.

3The loonie hit an 18-month low

The Canadian dollar fell as low as 1.4298 per U.S. dollar on Friday, its weakest level since April 2025, and was trading around 1.4275 (about 70.05 U.S. cents). It was down 0.2% on the week and is on track for a fifth straight weekly decline. Weaker job numbers cut Bank of Canada hike bets, and a smaller rate gap with the U.S. makes holding Canadian dollars less appealing.

What it means for you: US$1,000 now costs about C$1,428, roughly C$50 more than it did on Sept. 8 (USD/CAD was just above 1.3750). That hits U.S. travel, cross-border shopping, U.S.-dollar subscriptions and anything imported. Convert what you need for upcoming trips in stages rather than all at once.

4Oil eased after Trump ruled out a strike on Iran before the midterms

President Trump said the U.S. will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections and pointed to "productive discussions," pulling oil off its highs. Brent settled Thursday at US$104.28 (up 4.1%) and slipped about 1.3% on Friday to near US$102.90, while WTI fell to roughly US$90.40. Brent is still above US$100 and has bounced between about US$96 and nearly US$110 over the past month.

At the pump, CAA's national average for regular was about $1.78 a litre on Monday, versus $1.33 a year ago. Diesel is around $2.55 a litre, per Canadians for Affordable Energy's Dan McTeague. The federal gas tax holiday remains in place through Jan. 31, 2027.

What it means for you: Don't count on a quick drop at the pump, and heating oil and diesel-linked costs are the bigger risk heading into winter. Gas is up roughly a third from a year ago, so a long-weekend road trip costs noticeably more than last Thanksgiving.

5TSX jumped 1.5% on rate-hold hopes, then markets close for Thanksgiving

The S&P/TSX Composite gained 519.24 points (+1.48%) to 35,664.62 on Friday as soft jobs data fed bets that the Bank of Canada will hold. Financials and energy both rose, and gold bounced about 1.3% to near US$4,210 an ounce. The index is still about 3.8% below its August record of 37,069.11. In the U.S., the Dow closed at 51,655.01 (+0.83%) and the Nasdaq at 27,366.17 (+0.64%), and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.24% from a 5.36% peak on Oct. 7.

Canadian markets are closed Monday, Oct. 12 for Thanksgiving and reopen Tuesday.

What it means for you: One good day doesn't change a long-term plan. If you invest through a TFSA or RRSP, stick to your contribution schedule rather than reacting to a single session, and remember you can't trade TSX-listed holdings on Monday.

Coming up: Mon. Oct. 12, Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving. Mon. Oct. 19, September CPI. Wed. Oct. 28, Bank of Canada rate decision.

Figures are from Statistics Canada, Reuters, LSEG, CAA, The Canadian Press, Bloomberg and market data as of the Friday, Oct. 9 close. This article is for general information only and is not financial advice.