5 Things to Know Today: 68,000 Jobs Lost, a Weaker Loonie and the Oct. 28 BoC Decision

 

Oct 12, 2026 

Happy Thanksgiving. Canadian markets are closed today, but the numbers that shape your wallet aren't taking the day off. Here are five things to know on Monday, October 12.

1. Canada lost about 68,000 jobs in September, wiping out 2026's gains

Statistics Canada reported that employment fell by roughly 68,000 in September, following a 41,700-job drop in August. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.5% from 6.4%. Economists had forecast a small gain. Put the two months together and Canada has lost about 41,200 jobs so far this year, compared with a gain of 211,300 over the same stretch of 2025, according to Reuters.

The losses were spread almost evenly between full-time and part-time work and were concentrated in the public sector. Workers aged 15 to 24 lost 48,000 jobs, Quebec shed 49,000, and Ontario's unemployment rate sits at 7.0%, the highest among the large provinces. Average hourly wages were up 2.3% from a year ago.

What it means for you: A softening job market tends to show up as hiring freezes and reduced hours before layoffs. It's a good moment to check that your emergency fund covers several months of essentials and to think twice before taking on big new fixed payments.

2. The jobs data cooled bets on a Bank of Canada hike on Oct. 28

The Bank of Canada has held its key rate at 2.25% for about a year. After Friday's report, traders trimmed their bets on a hike at the Oct. 28 decision and now see the next increase coming in December. TD's Andrew Hencic said two months of weak labour data will dampen the case for near-term hikes, and the report puts a question mark over KPMG Canada's call for a December quarter-point increase.

The Bank still has more data to weigh. Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on Wednesday, September's CPI arrives Monday, October 19 (August came in at 3.0%), and the decision lands at 9:45 a.m. ET on October 28 alongside a new Monetary Policy Report.

What it means for you: If you have a variable-rate mortgage or a HELOC, nothing changes today, and the odds of a near-term increase just dropped. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields rather than the Bank's decisions, so waiting for Oct. 28 to shop for a rate isn't a guaranteed win.

3. The loonie slid to its weakest level since April 2025

The Canadian dollar dropped on the jobs release, with USD/CAD jumping to just under 1.4300 in a single move on Friday. That's the highest since early April 2025 and puts the loonie at roughly 70 US cents. The pair has climbed steadily from a low just above 1.3750 on September 8.

What it means for you: US$1,000 now costs about C$1,430, versus about C$1,375 at the September low, or roughly C$55 more. That adds up on US travel, US-dollar subscriptions, cross-border shopping and snowbird expenses, and most Canadian credit cards also add a foreign-transaction fee of around 2.5%.

4. Houthi attacks on Riyadh keep Brent near $103

Over the weekend, Yemen's Houthis struck near Saudi Arabia's capital. An airborne attack set jet-fuel storage at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport ablaze on Saturday, and another missile was intercepted on Sunday. Brent crude briefly approached US$105 before easing to around US$103 as traders weighed Donald Trump's claim of an "energy truce" between Russia and Ukraine and JPMorgan's estimate that Persian Gulf crude exports are still flowing at about 98% of pre-war levels. WTI settled near US$91 on Friday after Trump said he has no plans to resume attacks on Iran before next month's U.S. midterms.

What it means for you: Pump and heating-fuel prices tend to follow crude with a lag, so a calmer Monday doesn't guarantee cheaper gas this week. If you hold a broad TSX fund in your TFSA or RRSP, note that the TSX energy sector is up more than 51% in 2026, versus about 10.9% for the overall index (Reuters).

5. The TSX jumped 1.5% on Friday, and bond yields eased from 24-year highs

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,664.62, up 519.24 points (+1.48%), as weak employment data cooled rate-hike expectations and Canadian bond yields fell. It's still about 3.8% below its 37,069.10 record. In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield touched nearly 5.37% on Wednesday, its highest in 24 years, before slipping below 5.25% on Friday, and the major indexes posted weekly gains. Canadian and Japanese markets are closed today and the U.S. bond market is shut for Columbus Day, so expect lighter trading in the U.S. stock market, which stays open.

What it means for you: Falling yields are good news for anyone shopping for a fixed mortgage rate or approaching a renewal. Many lenders will hold a rate for up to 120 days, so if you renew in the next few months, it's worth asking about a rate hold.

On the calendar

Date	What to watch
Tue, Oct. 13	TSX reopens; OPEC monthly oil market report
Wed, Oct. 14	U.S. September CPI (8:30 a.m. ET); Macklem at the IMF meetings in Bangkok
Mon, Oct. 19	Canada's September CPI (8:30 a.m. ET)
Wed, Oct. 28	Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report (9:45 a.m. ET); U.S. Fed decision the same day

Sources: Statistics Canada, The Canadian Press, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Investopedia, FXStreet, XTB, Fulcrum Macro. Market figures reflect Friday, October 9 closes and Monday morning trading. This post is for general information only and is not financial advice.