5 Things to Know Today (Oct. 1): Minimum Wage Hike, Cooler U.S. Inflation, Oil Below $100

 

Thursday October 1, 2026

A new quarter, a higher minimum wage in Ontario and a softer inflation read south of the border. Here are the five things that matter to your wallet today.

1	Ontario's minimum wage rises to $17.95 today

Ontario's general minimum wage climbs 35 cents, from $17.60 to $17.95 an hour, as of October 1 — a roughly 2% bump tied to Ontario's CPI. The student rate goes to $16.90 (from $16.60) and the homeworker rate to $19.70. A full-time worker at 40 hours a week earns about $718 a week before deductions. Federally regulated workers already have an $18.15 floor, which has applied since April 1.

What it means for you: If you pay anyone by the hour — a cleaner, a part-time helper, a seasonal worker — hours worked from today forward must be paid at no less than $17.95, even if the pay period started in September. Workers should check their next paycheque.

2	Cooler U.S. inflation eases the pressure on rate hikes

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in softer than expected for August: headline PCE rose 3.4% from a year earlier versus the 3.7% economists expected, and core PCE rose 0.2% on the month (3.0% year over year) versus the 0.3% forecast. Odds of another Fed hike in October eased, although traders still expect one in December. At home, Statistics Canada reported that July GDP was flat (0.0%), with an early estimate of +0.2% for August. The Bank of Canada's next decision is October 28.

What it means for you: One soft inflation report doesn't make a trend, and rate hikes are not off the table. But if you're renewing a mortgage or carrying variable-rate debt, falling bond yields — not just one data point — are what would eventually pull fixed rates lower. Keep shopping rates rather than assuming relief.

3	TSX ends September with its first monthly loss in six months

The S&P/TSX Composite fell 224.40 points, or 0.63%, to close at 35,235.87 on Wednesday, ending a five-month winning streak after a September hit by rising global bond yields, a Fed rate hike and escalating Canada-U.S. trade tensions. The index still logged its ninth straight quarterly gain, the longest run on record, and is up nearly 12% year to date. On Wall Street, the Dow lost about 0.9% to roughly 50,900 and the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to about 7,652, while the Nasdaq added 0.2% to 26,861. The loonie closed at 70.27 U.S. cents.

What it means for you: Your Q3 statements will start landing soon. A down month inside a record quarter is a reminder to look at the bigger picture before reacting. And with the loonie near 70 U.S. cents (about C$1.42 per US$1), anything priced in U.S. dollars — travel, subscriptions, online orders — costs more.

4	Oil slips toward $97 as Gulf supply recovers

Brent crude dropped to roughly $97 a barrel on Thursday from above $103 a day earlier, while WTI sank to a four-week low near $89. Reports from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Kpler suggested Persian Gulf exports are close to pre-war levels, with Strait of Hormuz flows reaching about 13.2 million barrels a day and Saudi Arabia restoring its East-West pipeline route. The U.S. also announced up to 40 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, its final drawdown in the coordinated global release. Brent is still up about 8% for September, and U.S.-Iran talks remain unresolved.

What it means for you: Pump prices lag crude by days to weeks, so don't expect an overnight drop. The federal fuel excise tax suspension (10¢/L on gas) runs through January 31, 2027, which is cushioning prices, but the underlying oil move is what will matter for your fill-ups this month.

5	The U.S. ban on Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles is now live

Washington's import ban took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday, September 29, covering nearly $1 billion worth of Canadian goods, with alcohol making up roughly nine of every ten dollars affected. It's a ripple against about $880 billion in annual two-way trade, and many of the products already faced 50% tariffs, which acted as a de facto ban. The larger overhang is President Trump's threat to raise U.S. tariffs on Canadian autos from 25% to 50% on January 1.

What it means for you: You won't see a direct change at the checkout. The exposure falls on distillers, wineries, dairy processors and the regional jobs tied to U.S. sales. The bigger wallet risk is the January 1 auto-tariff deadline — worth knowing about if a vehicle purchase is on your radar.

On the Radar

Fri, Oct 2: U.S. September jobs report
Mon, Oct 12: Thanksgiving — TSX closed, U.S. markets open
Wed, Oct 28: Bank of Canada rate decision
Fri, Oct 30: Statistics Canada August GDP

Figures are from market closes and reports available as of publication on October 1, 2026, and may change. Sources include Statistics Canada, the Ontario Ministry of Labour, Reuters, AP, Baystreet and OilPrice.com. This is general information, not personalized financial advice.