Big Six Banks Raise Fixed Mortgage Rates: What Your Renewal Costs Now
Canadian Money Brief • Mortgages
Updated Saturday, October 17, 2026
If your mortgage term ends this winter, the rate you saw advertised in August is probably gone. All six of Canada’s big banks have raised fixed rates since early September, and the Bank of Canada hasn’t touched its policy rate in almost a year.
That disconnect catches a lot of homeowners off guard. Your fixed mortgage rate doesn’t follow the Bank of Canada. It follows the bond market. And bond yields have been climbing on oil-driven inflation worries, which means the people feeling it first right now are the ones opening a renewal letter.
The numbers at a glance
Up to 0.50 pt in fixed-rate increases at the big banks in about five weeks • BoC policy rate still 2.25% • Big bank prime still 4.45% • About $110 a month more on a $400,000 balance from a half-point jump
How far have the big banks moved?
Depending on the term, some big bank fixed rates are up by as much as half a percentage point in roughly five weeks, according to reporting from Money.ca and Canadian Mortgage Trends (CMT). TD and RBC set the early pace, nudging several terms up by 40 to 50 basis points since early September. CIBC raised most of its terms by about 20 basis points, while BMO, National Bank and Scotiabank mostly moved 10 to 30 basis points. (A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.)
The increases haven’t stopped. Here is a snapshot of the most recent moves reported for each bank’s own advertised rates:
| Bank | Most recent reported move | When |
|---|---|---|
| TD | 1-year +20 bps to 5.69%; 2-year +10 to 5.39%; 3-year +10 to 5.24%; 5-year +5 to 5.39% | Oct. 15 |
| Scotiabank | 2-year fixed +10 bps to 5.24% | Oct. 14 |
| CIBC | 1- to 4-year fixed +15 bps; 5-year fixed +20 bps | Oct. 9 |
| BMO | Special 3-year +20 bps to 4.94%; standard 5-year +20 bps to 5.14%; insured high-ratio 5-year +15 bps to 4.99% | Oct. 7 |
| RBC | Fixed rates +10 to 20 bps across 1- to 5-year terms; smaller discount on new 5-year variable | Oct. 6 |
| National Bank | Raised select fixed rates (moves mostly 10 to 30 bps since September) | Since early Sept. |
Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends and Money.ca reporting. These are rates the banks advertise directly. Mortgage brokers price separately, so broker rates will look different.
Why are fixed rates rising when the Bank of Canada hasn’t hiked?
Lenders price fixed mortgages off the five-year Government of Canada bond yield. That yield hit a 52-week high of 3.729% on Sept. 28, and it has been volatile since. CMT reported it closed at 3.575% on Wednesday, Oct. 14, then dropped by nearly 10 basis points to about 3.479% early Thursday as investors moved into government bonds.
The driver behind the surge is inflation worry. Canada’s August inflation rate came in at 3.0%, largely on energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, and higher oil has fed through to bond markets worldwide. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on Sept. 2 but flagged rising long-term yields and renewed inflation risks. Prime at the big banks has sat at 4.45% since October 2025.
Thursday’s bond rally is worth watching, because it could eventually take some pressure off fixed pricing. But CMT notes that bank mortgage pricing can lag moves in the bond market, so a dip in yields doesn’t mean advertised rates drop the next day.
What it means for you
Don’t wait for the Bank of Canada to act before you shop for a renewal. Fixed rates can rise well before a rate decision, and waiting on the central bank is not a guaranteed way to get a better deal.
What does a renewal actually cost now?
Take a homeowner with $400,000 left on their mortgage and 22 years remaining on the amortization. At 4.64%, the payment is about $2,411 a month. At 5.14%, it rises to roughly $2,521. That is about $110 more per month, or around $6,600 more over a five-year term, from a half-point move that happened in a matter of weeks.
The gap gets bigger when you compare the lowest broker pricing with a bank’s advertised rate. As of Oct. 9, the lowest insured five-year fixed rate through brokers sat at about 4.34% on Ratehub. Here is what different rates mean for payments on common balances:
| Mortgage balance | At 4.34% | At 5.14% | At 5.39% | Extra per month (4.34% vs. 5.14%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300,000 | $1,759 | $1,890 | $1,932 | +$131 |
| $400,000 | $2,346 | $2,521 | $2,576 | +$175 |
| $500,000 | $2,932 | $3,151 | $3,220 | +$219 |
| $600,000 | $3,519 | $3,781 | $3,865 | +$262 |
MoneySavings.ca calculations: 22 years remaining, monthly payments, semi-annual compounding as used for Canadian fixed mortgages. Rates shown are 4.34% (lowest insured 5-year fixed via brokers on Ratehub, Oct. 9), 5.14% (BMO standard 5-year) and 5.39% (TD 5-year). Illustrative only. Your rate depends on your lender, your balance, whether your mortgage is insured and your credit profile.
One caution on the comparison. The lowest “insured” pricing isn’t available to everyone, and uninsured rates tend to sit higher. The point of the table isn’t that you will get 4.34%. It is that the spread between the best offer and a bank’s advertised rate is worth hundreds of dollars a month on a typical balance, and over a five-year term that adds up to five figures.
Do you have to renew with your current lender?
No. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC) says you are free to take your mortgage to another lender at renewal if their offer fits better. Federally regulated lenders must send you a renewal notice at least 21 days before your term ends, and if you do nothing, your mortgage can renew automatically at whatever rate is on the letter.
Switching is also easier than it used to be. In late 2024, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) dropped the stress test requirement for uninsured borrowers making a straight switch, meaning you move to a new lender without changing your loan amount or payoff schedule. A new lender still has to approve your file, though, and a drop in income or credit score since you took out the loan could limit your options.
One more point on timing. Financial planner Christopher Liew has argued that the 21-day notice is a legal minimum, not a useful planning timeline. With rates moving this quickly, that is good advice.
What should you do before your renewal letter arrives?
Know your maturity date. If it falls within the next four months, start talking to lenders now rather than waiting for the notice.
Ask for a rate hold. Check with your current lender and at least one competitor about locking in a rate while you decide, and ask exactly how long the hold lasts.
Get a broker quote. Banks advertise their own rates, while brokers can often access different pricing. Comparing both is the fastest way to find out whether you are leaving money on the table.
Read the renewal letter closely. Don’t sign it just to get it over with, and don’t let an automatic rollover choose the rate for you.
Compare terms, not just rates. RBC trimming its variable discounts is a reminder that pricing is shifting across products. On Oct. 6, the best published five-year variable rate was about 3.40%, versus about 4.34% for the best five-year fixed, according to figures compiled from Ratehub by a mortgage brokerage. That gap makes variable tempting, but every Bank of Canada hike shrinks it.
Is a Bank of Canada hike actually coming?
Nobody knows yet, and the forecasts don’t agree. One mortgage-industry forecast published Oct. 9 put the odds of an Oct. 28 hike at roughly one in four. A weekly wrap-up published Oct. 12 had markets pricing about a 40% chance. Scotiabank and Oxford Economics have both called for an October hike, while TD Economics still expects the bank to hold for the rest of 2026. CMT reported that overnight index swap markets are pricing in about 100 basis points of hikes over the next 12 months, though some economists think that is too aggressive.
The next two data points could shift the picture. Statistics Canada releases September inflation on Monday, Oct. 19, and the Bank of Canada makes its next decision, with a Monetary Policy Report, on Wednesday, Oct. 28. The final decision of 2026 is Dec. 9.
| What to watch | Date | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| September CPI | Mon., Oct. 19 | A hot reading raises hike odds and could push bond yields back up |
| Bank of Canada decision | Wed., Oct. 28 | Variable rates and prime move on a hike; fixed rates move with bonds |
| Bank of Canada decision | Wed., Dec. 9 | Final 2026 decision and the last window for a hike this year |
The housing market is already feeling it
The rate jump isn’t only a renewal story. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported on Oct. 16 that national home sales fell 2.3% from August to September, ending a four-month run of modest gains. CREA’s senior economist linked the pullback to the recent rise in fixed mortgage rates and to the widespread expectation of a Bank of Canada hike before year-end, and said affordability is already stretched.
Compare before you sign
Checking today’s lowest advertised rates from banks and brokers takes a few minutes and can show you how far your renewal offer sits from the market.
The bottom line
The Bank of Canada hasn’t hiked, but mortgage costs for renewers have already gone up. Fixed rates track bond yields, and those yields are being pushed around by oil, inflation fears and global bond selling. If your renewal is coming, the cheapest move you can make is also the simplest one: start comparing offers early, ask for a rate hold, and don’t let the renewal letter decide for you.
Sources: Money.ca / Yahoo Finance Canada (Oct. 11); Canadian Mortgage Trends (Oct. 15, plus earlier bank rate reports); nesto.ca and Canadian Mortgage Trends data (Oct. 9); Home Financing Solutions weekly wrap-up (Oct. 12); Ratehub.ca figures as compiled by a mortgage brokerage (Oct. 6); CREA news release via GlobeNewswire (Oct. 16); Financial Consumer Agency of Canada renewal guidance; Bank of Canada Sept. 2 press release. Rates, yields and odds change quickly. Verify current figures with your lender before making a decision.
This article is for general information only and is not financial, mortgage or legal advice. MoneySavings.ca is not a lender or a licensed mortgage broker.
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