Canadian Money Brief • Daily Markets Update • Thursday, October 29, 2026
Canada’s central bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years on Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve held steady, but two of its voters wanted a hike. Stocks on both sides of the border still finished modestly higher. The twist came after the closing bell: Alphabet and Fortinet tumbled on earnings, and tech futures pointed lower Thursday morning.
S&P/TSX 36,265.09 ▲ 0.26% | S&P 500 7,743.98 ▲ 0.28% | WTI CRUDE US$102.78 ▲ 2.9% | LOONIE 71.3¢ US ● little changed |
🇨🇦 Canada: TSX Edges Higher on the BoC’s First Hike Since 2023
The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 36,265.09, up 93.60 points or 0.26%, after a choppy session. The index had already climbed to a six-day high on Tuesday on Celestica’s results and firmer gold prices. Early Wednesday, technology and energy led while gold and materials slipped.
The Bank of Canada lifted its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%. It is the first increase since July 2023. The Bank said inflation risks have grown and that it will take future decisions one meeting at a time, with more hikes possible. It now expects the economy to grow about 1% in 2026 and 2% in both 2027 and 2028.
Markets took it in stride because it was widely expected. Swap markets price roughly a 45% chance of another hike in December and fully price a second hike by January.
| Canada | Level | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 36,265.09 | ▲ 93.60 pts (0.26%) |
| BoC overnight rate | 2.50% | ▲ 0.25 pt |
| Canadian dollar | ≈71.3¢ US (US$1 ≈ C$1.40) | ● little changed |
| Canada 2-year yield | ≈3.41% | ▲ touched highest since Aug. 2024 |
| Canada 10-year yield | ≈3.86% | ▲ ≈ +3 bps |
🇺🇸 U.S. Markets: Fed Holds, Three Straight Gains for Wall Street
The Fed left its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10-2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike. The Fed held in the middle of a tightening cycle: it raised rates in September, and Chair Kevin Warsh signalled it is ready to act again if inflation does not cooperate. Prediction markets moved to roughly an 80%+ chance of a December hike. The S&P 500 closed higher on a Fed-decision day for the first time since December 2025, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.02%.
| U.S. index | Close | Change |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,743.98 | ▲ 21.38 pts (0.28%) |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,475.10 | ▲ 97.53 pts (0.19%) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,549.85 | ▲ 0.27% |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield | ≈5.02% | ▲ ≈ +3 bps |
After the bell: Alphabet fell roughly 10–11% in extended trading after a disappointing quarter, and cybersecurity firm Fortinet dropped about 26%. Microsoft gained, and Oracle jumped about 11% during the regular session. Nasdaq-100 futures were down around 1% early Thursday, so expect a more cautious tech open.
🌍 Europe: Quiet Close, All Eyes on the ECB
| European index | Wed. close | Change |
|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 644.14 | ▲ 0.07% |
| Germany DAX | 25,704.02 | ▲ 0.44% |
| UK FTSE 100 | 10,694.50 | ▲ 0.07% |
| Italy FTSE MIB | 49,824.30 | ▲ 0.40% |
| Euro STOXX 50 | 6,167.81 | ▲ 0.05% |
European markets opened Thursday modestly higher. The European Central Bank announces its decision at 9:15 a.m. ET and is widely expected to hold at 2.50%. Traders are watching for any signal about a December hike.
🌏 Asia-Pacific: Chips Split the Region on Thursday
Asian markets were mixed Thursday as Alphabet’s earnings miss rattled AI-linked stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose on chip names after closing Wednesday up 1.08% at 63,954.19, while South Korea’s Kospi slid as Samsung Electronics fell about 4%. Figures below are mid-session snapshots and may differ from final closes.
| Asian index (Thu. session) | Level (≈) | Change |
|---|
| Japan Nikkei 225 | 64,659 | ▲ ≈1.1% |
| South Korea Kospi | 5,938 | ▼ ≈1.2% |
| Hong Kong Hang Seng | 23,039 | ▼ ≈0.2% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,651 | ▼ ≈0.8% |
| Australia S&P/ASX 200 | 8,892 | ▲ ≈0.5% |
🛢️ Oil, Gold and the Dollar
Oil climbed after Yemen’s Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery. Saudi authorities had not confirmed damage. A drop in U.S. crude inventories added support, though crude eased slightly in early Thursday trading on diplomacy headlines. Gold slipped as higher oil and bond yields weighed on it.
| Commodity / currency | Settle / level | Change |
|---|
| WTI crude (Dec.) | US$102.78 | ▲ US$2.88 (2.9%) |
| Brent crude | ≈US$115 (Dec.); Jan. contract US$111.64 | ▲ front-month contract expires Oct. 30 |
| Gold (Dec. futures) | US$4,051.60 | ▼ 0.6% |
| Silver | ≈US$53.92 | ▼ ≈0.9% |
| U.S. Dollar Index | ≈102.1 | ▼ ≈0.2% |
💡 What It Means for You
- Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs: Canadian banks typically move prime in lockstep with the Bank of Canada. A 0.25-point increase works out to about $21 more per month for every $100,000 borrowed. Check your lender’s notice for the exact date and amount.
- Savers: Short-term GIC and high-interest savings rates tend to edge up when the central bank hikes. Rising Canadian bond yields point the same way, so compare offers before you lock in.
- Fixed-rate shoppers: Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields rather than the overnight rate. With the 2-year yield at a two-year high, don’t assume a hold in December would bring relief.
- At the pump and the thermostat: WTI above US$100 keeps pressure on gasoline and winter heating costs, which is exactly the inflation risk the Bank is pointing to.
- Investors: Earnings-driven swings in AI and tech stocks are a reminder that one-day moves are noise. Stick to your plan rather than reacting to headlines.
📅 What to Watch Next
- Today, 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge. A hot print would add fuel to the December-hike debate.
- Today, 9:15 a.m. ET: ECB rate decision, followed by President Lagarde’s press conference.
- Today, after the close: Amazon and Intel report earnings.
- Friday: Bank of Japan decision and the U.S. Employment Cost Index.
- Nov. 3: U.S. midterm elections. Reports say the Fed held off this week partly to wait until after the vote.
- Nov. 5: Canada’s federal Budget 2026.
Market data reflects closing levels for Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, plus Thursday-morning moves where noted, cross-checked across Reuters, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Bloomberg and The Canadian Press. Figures may be revised. This article is for general information only and is not investment, tax or financial advice. Consider speaking with a licensed professional about your situation.
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