CANADIAN MONEY BRIEF | DAILY MARKETS UPDATE | SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2026
Stock markets are closed for the weekend, so here is where things stood at Friday's close. Bay Street and Wall Street both rallied after a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report cooled bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike this month. The Canadian dollar, however, didn't get the memo: it slid to roughly 70.2 cents US, near an 18-month low.
The S&P/TSX Composite gained 0.99% to 35,502.65, snapping a four-session losing streak. It still finished the week down about 0.8%, and sits roughly 3.9% below its August record close.
Friday's Scoreboard
| Index | Close | Change | % Chg |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,502.65 | +347.89 | +0.99% |
| Dow Jones | 51,176.96 | +250.40 | +0.49% |
| S&P 500 | 7,722.72 | +56.27 | +0.73% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,190.86 | +319.27 | +1.19% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 631.35 | +4.70 | +0.75% |
| Nikkei 225 | 68,309.24 | −647.26 | −0.94% |
| Hang Seng | 23,972.29 | −640.98 | −2.60% |
Closing levels for Friday, October 2, 2026. Week-over-week: TSX −0.8%, Dow −1.3%, S&P 500 −0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Nikkei +2.9%.
The Catalyst: A Much Weaker U.S. Jobs Report
U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, far short of the roughly 85,000 to 90,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, August's gain was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000, and July was revised to a loss of 10,000. Wage growth was a soft 0.1% for the month versus 0.3% expected.
Treasury yields fell and traders slashed their odds of an October Fed hike to somewhere between roughly 15% and 23%, depending on the gauge, down from about 64% a week earlier by CME FedWatch's count. Markets still lean toward a hike in December.
The relief matters because bond yields have been the story all week. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.34% on Thursday, its highest since April 2002, before easing back to roughly 5.2% on the jobs data.
Canada: TSX Ends a Four-Day Losing Streak
The TSX climbed 347.89 points (+0.99%) to 35,502.65, trading between 35,265.16 and 35,521.49. It was a much-needed bounce: Thursday's 81-point (−0.23%) dip to 35,154.76 was the fourth straight decline and a one-month low. Technology, mining and industrial shares led the advance, while the slide in crude was a headwind for energy names.
Canada's 10-year government bond yield eased about 2 basis points to roughly 3.91%, still hovering near its highest level in about three years.
Pipeline news: On Thursday, Ottawa designated the proposed West Coast oil pipeline, now branded Pacific Link, a project of national interest, the first under the Building Canada Act. TD estimates the price tag at $35 billion to $44 billion, and the government is aiming for construction to begin in September 2027. For households, it won't change your finances this year; it is mainly a story for energy investors and Alberta's economy.
U.S.: Tech Leads, Nasdaq Nears a Record
All three major U.S. indexes finished higher. The Nasdaq jumped 1.19% to 27,190.86, touching a record intraday high of 27,353.68 but finishing just shy of its record close of 27,244.28 from September 22. The S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72 and the Dow added 250.40 points (0.49%) to 51,176.96.
Chip and software names did the heavy lifting: Nvidia hit an all-time high for the first time since May, and CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and AMD also set records. For the week, the Nasdaq gained about 0.5%, while the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% and the Dow fell about 1.3%.
Europe: Rebound From Multi-Month Lows
European stocks bounced after Thursday's bond-led selloff pushed them to multi-month lows, helped by falling oil prices and government bond yields.
| Index | Close | Change | % Chg |
|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 631.35 | +4.70 | +0.75% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,461.95 | +33.68 | +0.32% |
| DAX (Germany) | ≈25,222 | ≈+280 | +1.13% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7,897.19 | +61.88 | +0.79% |
Asia: Hong Kong Tumbles, Tokyo Slips
Hong Kong's Hang Seng plunged 2.6% to 23,972.29 in its first session after the October 1 National Day holiday, its biggest one-day drop since July, with tech stocks down about 2.3%. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.94% to 68,309.24 after Tokyo core inflation came in at 2.7%, hotter than the 2.4% forecast, though it still finished the week up about 2.9% for a third straight weekly gain.
South Korea's Kospi rose 0.46% to 7,003.74, and Australia's ASX 200 added roughly 0.5%. Mainland China's markets remain closed for the National Day holiday.
Oil, Gold and the Loonie
| Market | Level | Change | % Chg |
|---|
| WTI crude (US$/bbl) | 91.11 | −1.76 | −1.9% |
| Brent crude (US$/bbl) | ≈102.25 | −0.06 | −0.1% |
| Gold (US$/oz) | ≈4,170–4,190 | — | — |
| USD/CAD | ≈1.425 | — | Loonie ≈70.2¢ |
- Oil: Crude dropped sharply early after G7 leaders agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from emergency stocks over about four months. WTI touched a one-month low near US$88 before recovering to settle at $91.11, and Brent dipped below $100 intraday before finishing near $102. WTI ended the week down about 1.5%. Supply is still tight, though: Barclays lifted its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $20 to $115.
- Gold: Bullion hovered around US$4,170 to $4,190 an ounce (roughly C$5,950), heading for a second straight weekly loss of about 2.5% to 3% as high yields and a firm U.S. dollar weighed on the metal.
- Canadian dollar: The loonie weakened to about 1.425 per U.S. dollar (roughly 70.2 cents US) even as the weak U.S. jobs data pulled yields lower. A firm U.S. dollar, elevated U.S. yields and uncertainty about Canada's economy kept the pressure on.
What It Means for You
- Mortgages and borrowing: Falling yields are good news for borrowers, because fixed mortgage rates follow Canadian bond yields. But Canada's 10-year is still near a three-year high, so don't expect fixed-rate quotes to drop overnight. Two dates to watch: Canada's jobs report on Oct. 9 and the Bank of Canada decision on Oct. 28.
- US-dollar spending: At about C$1.425 per US$1, US$100 costs roughly C$142.50, about C$4.50 more than in early September. That affects U.S. travel, online orders from American retailers and U.S.-listed investments priced in US dollars (a weak loonie also boosts the Canadian-dollar value of U.S. holdings).
- At the pump: The G7 stock release could eventually ease fuel prices, but with WTI still around US$91 and Brent near $102, don't count on quick relief at the pump.
- Your portfolio: One strong day doesn't undo a down week. The TSX is still about 3.9% below its August record close and the Fed's next move is far from settled, so expect more volatility.
Looking Ahead
| Date | What to watch |
|---|
| Mon, Oct. 5 | Quebec provincial election (polls reportedly favour the Parti Québécois) |
| Fri, Oct. 9 | Canada's September jobs report, 8:30 a.m. ET (August: −41,700 jobs, 6.4% unemployment) |
| Mon, Oct. 12 | Thanksgiving: Canadian markets closed (U.S. stock markets open) |
| Wed, Oct. 28 | Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve rate decisions |
Figures are closing levels for Friday, October 2, 2026 (commodities, bond yields and currency are the latest available levels and may differ slightly by data provider). This update is for general information only and is not investment, tax or legal advice. Sources include TMX, Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Reuters, The Canadian Press, Statistics Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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