Canadian Money Brief • Daily Markets Update • Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Good morning. Canadians return from the long weekend to a lot of catching up. Asia's chip stocks were hammered overnight, oil is hovering near US$106 a barrel, and the loonie is sitting near its weakest level in 18 months. The TSX reopens today after Thanksgiving, and Wall Street's big banks kick off earnings season ahead of tomorrow's US inflation report.
The Big Three Today
1. Kospi crashes 5.46% to 6,035 on a global chip and AI selloff
2. Brent settles at US$106.65, its highest close since Sept. 15, on attacks on Saudi Arabia
3. TSX reopens after Friday's 519-point jump on a shock jobs report; USD/CAD near 1.43
Canada: TSX Reopens After a Jobs Shock
The Toronto Stock Exchange was closed Monday for Thanksgiving, so Friday's session is still the latest close, and it was a big one. The S&P/TSX Composite jumped 519.24 points (+1.48%) to 35,664.62 after Statistics Canada reported that the economy lost 68,300 jobs in September when economists had expected a small gain. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.5% from 6.4%.
| S&P/TSX (Fri. Oct. 9 close) | Level | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,664.62 | +1.48% |
| Materials (sector) | – | +2.81% |
| Technology (sector) | – | +2.88% |
| Financials (sector) | – | +1.21% |
TSX closed Monday, Oct. 12 (Thanksgiving). Sector moves from Friday's session. Weekly gain: +0.46%, after two straight weekly declines.
The index is still about 3.8% below its August record of 37,069.11, though it is up roughly 19.5% from a year ago. TSX futures were pointing higher in early trading today.
Why the weak jobs number lifted stocks: It was the second straight monthly loss (August was down 41,700), wiping out the year's job gains. That cut the odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike. Markets now price roughly a one-in-four chance of a hike on October 28, down from about 40% before the report. A December hike is still largely priced in.
The loonie took the hit. USD/CAD touched 1.4299 on Friday, the weakest Canadian dollar since April 2025, and sits around 1.426 (about 70 US cents) this morning. Friday also capped a fifth straight weekly decline for the currency. Canada's 10-year bond yield is near 3.88%, while the US 10-year is above 5.2%, a gap that continues to weigh on the dollar.
United States: Dow Up, Nasdaq Slips on Chip Weakness
US stocks were open Monday for Columbus Day (the bond market was closed) and the session was mixed. The Dow gained, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped as semiconductor stocks fell. Energy shares led the S&P 500, up about 1.4%, as oil rose. Philadelphia semiconductor index lost roughly 2.7%, and Micron dropped about 3.9%.
| US Index (Mon. Oct. 12 close) | Level | Change |
|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,850.55 | +0.38% |
| S&P 500 | 7,807.24 | -0.06% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,245.90 | -0.44% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,794.48 | -0.45% |
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit record highs last week. Week to Oct. 9: Dow +0.9%, S&P 500 +1.2%, Nasdaq +0.6%.
What's next: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report before the open today. Wednesday's September CPI is the main event, with economists expecting inflation to rise to 3.6% year over year (from 3.4%) and core CPI at 2.5% (from 2.4%). The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and meets again October 27–28. Nasdaq futures were down by close to 1% overnight on the chip rout.
Europe: Banks Lead a Second Day of Gains
European stocks rose Monday as a surge in bank shares and lower bond yields outweighed higher oil prices. Spain's IBEX led regional markets, and the STOXX 600 banking index climbed about 1.5%. Investors are now turning to earnings. Overnight, luxury giant LVMH reported third-quarter revenue of €18.5 billion, a slight beat, but sales in its core Fashion & Leather Goods division fell 5%, and European markets were set for a slightly lower open.
| European Index (Mon. Oct. 12 close) | Level | Change |
|---|
| STOXX 600 | 635.65 | +0.65% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,656 | +0.99% |
| DAX (Germany) | 25,268 | +0.72% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7,833 | +0.38% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,201 | +0.45% |
Closing levels rounded as reported; DAX gain reported between +0.72% and +0.76% depending on source.
Asia: Kospi Crashes as the Chip Rout Spreads
Asian markets split sharply today. Technology-heavy markets were hit hard after Monday's drop in US chip stocks, with oil-driven inflation worries and doubts about the AI rally cited as drivers. South Korea's Kospi plunged 5.46% to 6,035.35. It fell as much as about 7% intraday, dipping below 6,000 for the first time since July 31, and the exchange triggered a sidecar halt on programme trading. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.82% in its first session back from a holiday. Hong Kong and mainland China held up better.
| Asian Index (Tue. Oct. 13 close) | Level | Change |
|---|
| Kospi (South Korea) | 6,035.35 | -5.46% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 67,777.52 | -1.82% |
| Taiwan Weighted | 48,341.31 | -1.95% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 24,345.22 | +0.30% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,800.86 | +0.10% |
| ASX 200 (Australia) | 8,783.90 | 0.00% |
Oil, Gold, Currencies and Bonds
Oil rose Monday as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including strikes tied to Riyadh's airport, and tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz and off Oman outweighed US moves to ease Russian diesel supply and a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire on energy targets (which Ukraine has publicly questioned). Brent eased about 1.5% to near US$105 in early trading today. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to US$90 from US$85, estimating a risk premium of just over US$20 a barrel.
| Commodity / Rate | Latest | Change |
|---|
| Brent crude (Mon. settle) | US$106.65 | +1.8% |
| WTI crude (Mon. settle) | US$93.74 | +2.0% |
| Gold (Mon. close) | US$4,167.56/oz | -0.64% |
| USD/CAD (this morning) | ≈1.426 | – |
| US 10-year yield (Fri. close) | ≈5.24% | – |
| Canada 10-year yield (today) | ≈3.88% | – |
Gold was near US$4,190 this morning. The US bond market was closed Monday. Brent is the global benchmark; WTI is the North American benchmark.
What It Means for You
- Travel and US purchases cost more. At about 70 US cents, the loonie is near an 18-month low. US-dollar travel, US online orders and USD-priced investments all take a bigger bite out of Canadian dollars right now.
- Rate relief, for now. Weak jobs data lowered the odds of an October Bank of Canada hike, which is good news for people with variable-rate mortgages or lines of credit. But a December hike is still largely priced in, and the Bank also has to weigh high oil prices. Fixed-rate mortgage pricing follows bond yields, which remain elevated.
- Oil above US$105 keeps pressure on fuel and heating costs. Pump prices tend to follow crude with a lag, so a drop in crude this morning will not show up at the pump overnight.
- Check your concentration risk. A 5% one-day drop in Korea's main index is a reminder of how tied global markets are to a handful of chip and AI names. If your TFSA, RRSP or FHSA holds a lot of tech through US or global ETFs, it is worth knowing how much.
What to Watch This Week
| When | Event |
|---|
| Tue. Oct. 13 | JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo earnings; US existing home sales; TSX reopens |
| Wed. Oct. 14 | US September CPI (8:30 a.m. ET); Fed Beige Book (2 p.m. ET); Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock earnings; ASML results |
| Thu. Oct. 15 | US producer prices and jobless claims; TSMC earnings |
| Fri. Oct. 16 | Fed Chair Warsh scheduled to speak |
| Mon. Oct. 19 | Canada's September CPI (8:30 a.m. ET), a key input for the Bank of Canada |
| Oct. 27–28 | Fed meeting (decision Oct. 28) and the Bank of Canada rate decision with Monetary Policy Report, also Oct. 28 |
Market data compiled from TMX Money, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, TradingView, Newsquawk and other public sources, cross-checked across outlets. Figures are as reported at time of writing and may be revised. This article is for general information only and is not financial, tax or investment advice. Consider speaking with a licensed advisor before making decisions.
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