Daily Markets Update: Nasdaq Hits Record as Yields Top 5.3%, TSX Flat, Loonie Near 70¢
S&P/TSX 35,518.55 +0.04% | S&P 500 7,773.99 +0.66% | Nasdaq 27,477.31 +1.05% | Brent US$100.42 -1.8% | USD/CAD 1.4250 Flat | US 10-yr 5.315% +3.8 bp |
Monday, October 5 close, with Asia’s Tuesday session. Wall Street’s tech rally pushed the Nasdaq to a fresh record on Monday even as long-term bond yields kept climbing: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.315%, a new 52-week high. Canada’s TSX barely moved, with tech gains offsetting a slide in energy and financials, and Cenovus fell after unveiling a C$5.7-billion takeover of Athabasca Oil. Oil dropped nearly 2% as G7 emergency stock releases and rising Middle East exports eased supply fears, and the loonie hovered near 70 U.S. cents, close to its weakest level in about 18 months.
Canada: TSX Flat as Tech Offsets Energy
| Index / Stock | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,518.55 | +0.04% |
| Shopify (SHOP) | — | +5.7% |
| Athabasca Oil (ATH) | — | +13.5% |
| Cenovus Energy (CVE) | C$44.86 | -3.0% |
| Suncor Energy (SU) | — | -1.2% |
The TSX added 15.90 points on Monday, its second straight gain, after Friday’s 348-point (+1%) jump, the best day in over two weeks. Technology was the standout sector, up about 1.4%.
The benchmark index finished essentially unchanged. Tech stocks followed the AI-led rally on Wall Street, with Shopify leading, while energy and financials were lower as the recent oil rally lost momentum. Suncor slipped after agreeing to sell its interests in three East Coast offshore assets to Ithaca Energy.
The Cenovus-Athabasca deal. Cenovus will buy Athabasca Oil in a cash-and-stock transaction worth about C$5.7 billion including debt, offering C$12 per Athabasca share (a 14% premium to its 20-day average price). Athabasca jumped, but Cenovus fell as investors weighed a UBS downgrade to Hold and a deal that pushes its debt above target in the near term. The company expects roughly C$85 million in annual synergies and a close in December, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
The economy behind the index. S&P Global’s Canada services PMI showed activity contracting for a fourth straight month in September, a reminder that the stock market and the real economy are sending different signals. Canada’s 10-year government bond yield rose 3.2 basis points to 3.977%.
U.S.: Nasdaq Sets a Record, but Bond Yields Keep Rising
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 51,267.90 | +0.18% |
| S&P 500 | 7,773.99 | +0.66% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,477.31 | +1.05% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,853.27 | +0.72% |
The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100 both closed at record highs.
| U.S. Treasury yield | Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.823% | -0.2 bp |
| 10-year | 5.315% | +3.8 bp |
| 30-year | 5.670% | +4.0 bp |
The 10-, 20- and 30-year yields all set new 52-week highs on Monday. bp = basis points (0.01 percentage point).
Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report is the backdrop. September payrolls rose by just 29,000, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60,000, and unemployment edged up to 4.2%. That cooled bets on another Fed rate hike in October and helped growth stocks, yet the 10-year yield stayed above 5.3%. Analysts describe a two-speed market: mega-cap AI names shrug off higher rates, while most other stocks feel the squeeze on valuations.
Movers: PTC surged about 33% after Schneider Electric agreed to buy it for roughly US$22 billion in cash. C.H. Robinson fell nearly 11% on a deal to sell its Global Forwarding unit to RXO. Lennar (-6.7%) and Chipotle (-4.6%) also lost ground. Investors now look to the Fed’s September meeting minutes on Wednesday.
Europe, Asia and Beyond
| Europe (Mon close) | Change |
|---|---|
| STOXX 600 | +0.36% |
| FTSE 100 (about 10,497) | +0.34% |
| DAX | +0.09% |
| CAC 40 | -0.80% |
| SMI (Switzerland) | +0.31% |
European index levels vary slightly by data provider, so changes are shown.
European stocks edged higher, led by miners. France was the weak spot: the CAC 40 fell to around a six-month low on fiscal worries and political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 election, and the euro dropped to a 17-month low against the U.S. dollar as French and other southern European borrowing costs climbed.
| Asia (Tue close) | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 70,683.98 | +1.05% |
| Topix (Japan) | 4,183.56 | +0.92% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 24,224.11 | +0.76% |
| ASX 200 (Australia) | 8,736 | +0.6% |
| Kospi (South Korea) | 6,941.39 | -0.89% |
Mainland China’s markets were closed for the Golden Week holiday.
Japan’s Nikkei climbed to a three-month high, following Wall Street higher and helped by lower oil prices. Australia’s ASX 200 notched a third straight gain. In Latin America, Brazil’s real jumped more than 4% and local stocks surged after Flavio Bolsonaro finished first in Sunday’s presidential vote (about 47% to Lula’s 45%), setting up an October runoff.
Oil, Gold and the Loonie
| Commodity / currency | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (Mon settle) | US$89.39 | -1.95% |
| Brent crude (Mon settle) | US$100.42 | -1.8% |
| Gold (spot, Tue) | about US$4,122/oz | -0.4% |
| Loonie (USD/CAD) | C$1.4250 = 70.18¢ US | Flat |
| Canada 10-yr yield | 3.977% | +3.2 bp |
Gold converts to roughly C$5,870 an ounce at today’s exchange rate. Oil is quoted for the front contracts; Brent traded near US$100.6 on Tuesday.
Oil fell after the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel over four months, and as Middle East crude exports recovered to near pre-war levels. Saudi Aramco’s CEO nonetheless warned that global inventories are “scarily thin” and could take up to two years to rebuild once the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, adding that refined fuel prices have risen even faster than crude.
Gold remains under pressure from high yields and a firm U.S. dollar, trading about 12% below its late-August peak near US$4,700. The loonie traded between 1.4239 and 1.4293 per U.S. dollar. It has now fallen four weeks in a row, with Canadian yields roughly 134 basis points below U.S. yields.
- A 70-cent loonie costs more across the border. At C$1.425, US$100 costs about C$142.50 before fees. Cross-border shopping, U.S. travel and U.S.-dollar subscriptions all take a bigger bite, while U.S.-listed holdings in your TFSA or RRSP get a currency boost when converted back to Canadian dollars.
- Bond yields drive fixed mortgage rates. Fixed mortgage pricing follows government bond yields, especially the 5-year, rather than the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. With Canada’s 10-year near 3.98% and U.S. yields at 5.3%, anyone renewing or shopping for a fixed rate should compare quotes and ask about rate holds.
- Cheaper crude does not mean cheaper gas right away. Refined fuels have been tighter than crude, so a drop in oil prices can take weeks to reach the pump, if it does at all.
- Index flat, portfolios not. A flat TSX can hide big moves underneath: energy names slid while tech surged. Check how concentrated your holdings are in one sector.
What to Watch
- Today (Tue, Oct 6): Canada’s August trade data and September Ivey PMI; U.S. August trade deficit (expected near US$102 billion); speeches from Fed officials Williams, Bowman, Schmid and Logan; earnings from Constellation Brands and Lamb Weston.
- Wed, Oct 7: Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting.
- Fri, Oct 9: Canada’s September jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, after August’s loss of 41,700 jobs.
- Mon, Oct 12: Thanksgiving: the TSX is closed while U.S. markets stay open.
- Mon, Oct 19: Canada’s September inflation report.
- Oct 27–28: Fed decision, then the Bank of Canada’s rate decision on Oct. 28.
Market data compiled from Reuters, TMX Group, TheStreet, CNBC, Bloomberg, S&P Global and ABC News (Australia), cross-checked across sources; figures reflect closing levels unless noted and may be revised. MoneySavings.ca provides general information, not investment, tax or legal advice. Consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions.
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