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Trump’s Oct. 30 Tariff Swap: Who Wins, Who Loses, and What It Means for Your Wallet

  Canadian Money Brief • October 27, 2026 Washington just reshuffled the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods. Seaweed and packing boxes are out. Vinyl flooring, cocoa powder and shampoo are in. Here is who comes out ahead, who doesn't, and what to do with your money before the changes take effect on Oct. 30. The short version This is a reshuffle, not a rollback: more products are going onto the 50% list than coming off it, according to a KPMG Law trade lawyer. Politics is the driver. The exemptions followed U.S. Sen. Susan Collins' push, 10 days before the U.S. midterms. Canada's own counter-tariffs, which affect prices in your store, are not changing. A broad trade deal before the midterms looks unlikely. What's coming off, what's going on The White House changes take effect at the end of this month. Reports from CTV News and Money.ca describe the swap this way: Coming off the 50% list Going onto the 50% list Seaweed Packing boxes Some plywood sheets Certain paper and pl...
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Markets Update: TSX Climbs, Brazil Crashes 14% as BoC Hike Looms (Oct. 27)

 

Canada's main index gained ground Monday as softer oil and a rebound in tech lifted markets worldwide, but the real drama was in Brazil, where stocks plunged almost 14% in a single session. With the Bank of Canada and the Fed both deciding on rates Wednesday, traders are positioning for a big week.

🇨🇦 Canada: TSX Rebounds

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,944.16, up 155.98 points (+0.44%), recovering from Friday's 35,788.18 close. Financials led the way (+0.81%), while energy edged up 0.44% even as crude slipped. The index remains about 2.7% below its late-August record of 36,957.63.

The loonie slipped to roughly 71.3 US cents from 71.46 on Friday, as the U.S. dollar gained against most major currencies.

CanadaCloseChange
S&P/TSX Composite35,944.16▲ +0.44%
TSX Financials754.94▲ +0.81%
TSX Energy493.87▲ +0.44%
Canadian dollar (US¢)~71.3▼ from 71.46

🇺🇸 United States: Tech Leads a Rebound

Wall Street snapped back after two straight weekly losses. Oil's retreat eased inflation worries, and AI stocks jumped after Anthropic filed for an initial public offering. Nvidia rose 2.4%. The S&P 500 is now within 1.8% of its record high set earlier this month. Treasury yields were flat, with the 10-year at 4.986% and the 2-year at about 4.71%.

U.S. IndexCloseChange
S&P 5007,676.77▲ +0.70%
Dow Jones52,361.58▲ +0.28%
Nasdaq Composite26,169.38▲ +0.82%
Russell 20002,786.42▲ +0.4%

🇪🇺 Europe, Asia and Brazil

Europe rallied Monday on cheaper oil, then gave back some ground Tuesday morning as a post-earnings slump at HSBC dragged the FTSE 100 down about 1%. Asia surged Tuesday on the AI trade: South Korea's Kospi jumped 3.1% after stronger-than-expected Q3 growth of 3.4%, and Japan's Nikkei gained 1.7%. China lagged, with Shanghai down 1.3% as leaders met behind closed doors in Beijing.

MarketLevelChange
STOXX Europe 600 (Mon.)640.66▲ +0.77%
Germany DAX (Mon.)25,410.84▲ +0.91%
France CAC 40 (Mon.)7,847.32▲ +0.83%
UK FTSE 100 (Mon.)10,767.33▲ +0.72%
Japan Nikkei 225 (Tue.)63,268.37▲ +1.7%
South Korea Kospi (Tue.)5,638.34▲ +3.1%
Hong Kong Hang Seng (Tue.)23,041.32▼ -0.7%
Shanghai Composite (Tue.)3,648.30▼ -1.3%
Australia S&P/ASX 200 (Tue.)8,852.10▲ +0.5%
Brazil Ibovespa (Mon.)176,608.23▼ -13.88%
Brazil's shock: President Lula's surprise runoff win over Flávio Bolsonaro triggered a 30-minute trading halt, the first since March 2020. The Ibovespa fell as much as 17% intraday, and the real lost roughly 8% against the U.S. dollar. Investors are now watching Lula's fiscal plans and his pick for finance minister.

🛢 Oil, Gold and Rates

Crude fell on hopes that Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani talks with Iran could ease tensions, though continued attacks on Saudi Arabia kept prices near six-month highs. U.S. crude edged back up about 0.7% to roughly US$102.47 on Tuesday. Gold recovered some ground after last week's slide of about 4%.

Commodity / RateSettleChange
WTI crude (per barrel)US$101.76▼ -1.46%
Brent crude (per barrel)US$115.81▼ -0.8%
Gold (Dec. futures, per oz)US$4,038.40▲ +0.8%
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield4.986%Little changed

💡 What It Means for You

  • Mortgages and HELOCs: Markets see about an 80% chance the Bank of Canada hikes to 2.50% on Wednesday. A quarter-point increase adds roughly $104 a month in interest on a $500,000 variable-rate balance.
  • Gas and groceries: With Brent above US$115, oil-driven inflation is exactly what the Bank is worried about spreading to food and housing costs.
  • Your portfolio: A big week of rate decisions and Big Tech earnings means volatility is likely. Avoid reacting to one day's headlines, and check that your TFSA and RRSP mix still matches your time horizon.

📅 What to Watch

When (ET)Event
Wed. Oct. 28, 9:45 a.m.Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report (hike to 2.50% expected)
Wed. Oct. 28, 2 p.m.Fed decision (hold at 3.75%–4.00% expected), press conference 2:30 p.m.; Alphabet and Microsoft earnings after the close
Thu. Oct. 29ECB decision (9:15 a.m.), U.S. Q3 GDP and PCE inflation (8:30 a.m.), Amazon earnings
Fri. Oct. 30Bank of Japan decision (Thursday 11 p.m. ET); revised U.S. tariff list on Canadian goods scheduled to take effect

Figures reflect closing levels from Monday, Oct. 26, plus Tuesday, Oct. 27 morning trading in Asia and Europe, compiled from The Canadian Press, AP, Reuters and exchange data. Anthropic, mentioned above, is the maker of the Claude AI assistant. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.

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