CANADIAN MONEY BRIEF · WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT
Week of October 19–23, 2026
Published Saturday, October 24, 2026 · Closing levels as of Friday, Oct 23
S&P/TSX 35,788.18 ▼ 1.1% on the week | S&P 500 7,623.68 ▼ 0.5% on the week | WTI CRUDE US$103.27 ▲ about 4% on the week | LOONIE 71.4¢ US ▲ about 1% on the week |
Canadian inflation at 3.1% on Monday, a global AI-stock sell-off on Thursday and oil punching through US$100 on Friday made for a rough week on both sides of the border. The TSX gave back all of its midweek gains, Wall Street posted a second straight weekly loss, and Europe had its worst week since early September. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision is now just days away, and markets are betting on a hike.
The Scoreboard: North America
| Index | Friday close | Day | Week |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,788.18 | -0.52% | -1.1% |
| Dow Jones Industrial | 52,215.16 | -1.23% | +0.4% |
| S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | -0.52% | -0.5% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,955.34 | -0.21% | -0.7% |
The Dow was the only major U.S. average to finish the week higher (its third straight weekly gain), helped by defensive stocks, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each logged a second consecutive weekly loss. In Toronto, the TSX fell about 388 points from last Friday’s close of 36,176.55.
Canada: Midweek Highs Erased
The TSX opened the week on its back foot. Statistics Canada reported September inflation of 3.1%, up from 3.0% in August, which kept Bank of Canada rate-hike bets alive. The TSX slipped 0.69% on Monday, with telecoms and utilities leading the losses and metals weak. Buyers returned Tuesday and Wednesday, and Wednesday’s close of 36,324.99 was the TSX’s highest in four weeks.
| S&P/TSX Composite | Close | Change |
|---|
| Mon, Oct 19 | 35,928.63 | -0.69% |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 36,107.96 | +0.50% |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 36,324.99 | +0.60% |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 35,973.45 | -0.97% |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 35,788.18 | -0.52% |
Then the mood flipped. Thursday’s global sell-off in AI-linked shares, plus a slide in gold and copper, dragged the TSX down nearly 1%, since miners carry heavy weight in the index. On Friday, oil above US$100 lifted energy stocks (the capped energy index gained about 2%), but financials fell nearly 1%, and consumer staples, real estate and telecoms also lagged.
The loonie was a bright spot. The Canadian dollar rose for a seventh straight session to a five-week high of about 71.4 US cents, gaining roughly 1% on the week, its best weekly showing since April. Higher oil and rising expectations for a Bank of Canada hike both helped. Friday’s data added fuel: retail sales rose 1.2% in August, and Statistics Canada’s early estimate points to a further 0.7% gain in September.
The Bank of Canada is the main event. The central bank holds its next decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Investors are pricing in close to an 80% chance of a quarter-point hike from 2.25% to 2.50%, and a majority of economists polled by Reuters expect that move, with one more hike by the end of March.
United States: AI Jitters and $100 Oil
Wall Street’s week turned on Thursday, when worries about how the AI boom will be financed hit tech hard. The Nasdaq dropped roughly 2.6%, its worst day since June, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index plunged about 6.7%. Chip stocks steadied on Friday, but the pain spread: higher oil prices pushed yields back toward 5%, and the Dow shed 652.82 points, or 1.23%. Nearly three out of four S&P 500 stocks fell.
The economic data pointed to a resilient economy with stubborn inflation. The preliminary October composite purchasing managers’ index came in at 57.6, still near its highest levels since early 2022, and businesses reported their fastest pace of price increases since August 2022. Consumers are feeling the pinch: the University of Michigan’s final October sentiment reading was 48.0, and year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%.
Earnings have been a bright spot. S&P 500 companies are on track for third-quarter profit growth of more than 32%, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. About a third of the index reports next week, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, and investors will watch their AI spending plans closely.
Europe and Asia: France in Focus, Chips Weigh on Asia
| Index | Friday close | Day |
|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 635.77 | -0.31% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,690.36 | -0.32% |
| DAX (Germany) | 25,182 | -0.7% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7,782.83 | -0.36% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 62,693.16 | -0.34% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 23,093.37 | +0.69% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,690.48 | +0.89% |
Europe suffered its steepest weekly loss since early September: the STOXX 600 fell about 1.4% on the week, while Germany’s DAX lost roughly 1.7%. France was the center of attention. Street unrest and a budget standoff pushed France’s 10-year bond yield above 5% on Wednesday for the first time since 2002, and French business activity unexpectedly contracted in October. Luxury giant Kering plunged 16.6% on weak Gucci sales, dragging the luxury sector down 3.6% on Friday.
Asia was shaken by Thursday’s U.S. chip rout. Japan’s Nikkei slid as much as 2.3% on Friday before recovering to close down 0.34%, while Hong Kong and mainland China rebounded, with the Hang Seng up 0.69% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.89%.
Oil, Gold, Currencies and Yields
| Commodity / Currency / Yield | Level | Move |
|---|
| WTI crude oil (Dec.) | US$103.27 | +3.8% Fri; about +4% on the week |
| Brent crude | Near US$117 (intraday) | Highest in more than four years |
| Gold (spot) | About US$3,996 | -0.7% Fri; down more than 3.5% on the week |
| Silver (spot) | About US$53.90 | -1.3% Fri |
| Canadian dollar | About 71.4¢ US (C$1.40 per US$1) | +1% on the week; 5-week high |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield | Near 5.0% | Hovering around 5% |
| Canada 10-year bond yield | 3.79% | Little changed Friday morning |
The commodity story had two sides. Oil surged as the Strait of Hormuz situation worsened and reports suggested possible renewed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms. Gold, normally a safe haven, fell below US$4,000 for the first time since July, as higher oil prices fed inflation worries and expectations of tighter central bank policy.
What It Means for You
- Mortgages and credit: if the Bank of Canada hikes on Oct. 28, prime-linked borrowing such as variable-rate mortgages, HELOCs and lines of credit typically gets more expensive. Fixed mortgage rates track bond yields, which have been climbing.
- Savers: rate hikes tend to nudge up what high-interest savings accounts and GICs pay, so it can be worth checking your rate this week.
- At the pump and the grocery store: oil above US$100 keeps pressure on gasoline, shipping and food costs, which is the very inflation the Bank of Canada is trying to contain.
- Travel and shopping: a stronger loonie helps when you buy in U.S. dollars, whether that’s cross-border shopping, U.S. travel or online orders.
- Your TFSA and RRSP: a 1% weekly dip in the TSX is a reminder that markets move both ways. Gold-heavy and tech-heavy holdings swung the most this week, so it’s worth checking how concentrated your funds are.
What to Watch Next Week (Oct. 26–30)
| When | What to watch |
|---|
| Wed, Oct 28 | Bank of Canada decision (9:45 a.m. ET) — a 25-basis-point hike to 2.50% is widely expected; U.S. Fed decision (2 p.m. ET) — markets expect a hold, with the focus on signals for December; Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close |
| Thu, Oct 29 | U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation (8:30 a.m. ET); European Central Bank decision; Amazon earnings; EU–Canada summit begins (Oct 29–30) |
| Fri, Oct 30 | Bank of Japan decision; euro-zone Q3 GDP flash estimate |
| Next week and beyond | U.S. midterm elections on Nov 3; Canada’s federal Budget 2026 on Nov 5 |
The bottom line: the next move for markets depends on three things: whether the Bank of Canada and the Fed sound hawkish, whether big tech earnings calm worries about AI spending, and whether oil keeps climbing. Expect volatility to stay elevated through Wednesday’s double central bank announcement.
Market figures are official closing levels for Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, drawn from TMX/S&P Dow Jones Indices, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Reuters and The Canadian Press. Brent, gold, silver, bond yields and the loonie are late-session readings. Weekly changes compare with the Oct. 16 close. The DAX is the Xetra close. This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Check your own situation, or speak with a licensed advisor, before making financial decisions.
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