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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Toronto's Cooling Housing Market: Assessing the Effects on Canadians

Housing Market Concerns: Canadians React to Toronto's Falling Home Prices

Housing Market Concerns: Canadians React to Toronto's Falling Home Prices


In July 2023, Toronto's housing market experienced a second consecutive month of falling home prices, raising concerns among Canadians about the state of the national economy and their personal financial well-being. The real estate sector, which has been a significant driver of economic growth in recent years, has started to show signs of vulnerability, leaving homeowners and potential buyers uncertain about the future. While the declining prices may be a relief for some aspiring homeowners who were previously priced out of the market, existing homeowners may be facing negative equity, impacting their ability to refinance or sell their properties. Additionally, the cooling housing market may lead to reduced consumer spending and overall economic slowdown as Canadians tighten their belts and become more cautious about their financial commitments.


Mixed Reactions to the Housing Downturn: Challenges and Opportunities for Canadians


As Toronto's home prices continue to fall for a second month in July 2023, Canadians are experiencing mixed reactions to the shifting landscape of the housing market. Homebuyers who have been waiting for a chance to enter the market see this as a potential opportunity to purchase their dream homes at more affordable prices. However, there are concerns among homeowners who have invested heavily in the market and now face declining property values. Some may find themselves in negative equity situations, leading to financial stress and a reduced ability to invest or spend in other areas of the economy. On the other hand, the Canadian government and policymakers are presented with an opportunity to address the real estate market's sustainability and implement measures to ensure a balanced and stable housing sector. While the short-term impacts of falling home prices are causing unease, it may also be a chance for Canadians to reflect on the long-term housing affordability and devise solutions that benefit both buyers and homeowners alike.

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