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Oil jumps above US$105 after Riyadh blasts, futures slip and yields near 24-year highs. TSX, Wall Street and global markets for Oct 8.

  Canadian Money Brief | Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Morning edition Oil is jumping, futures are sliding and bond yields are sitting near 24-year highs. Explosions in Riyadh, including a blast at the city's airport, sent crude sharply higher early Thursday and pushed U.S. stock futures lower. That follows a rough Wednesday for Toronto, where banks and miners dragged the TSX down. Here is where every major market stands before the open. Key takeaways Brent crude jumped about 5% to above US$105 a barrel; WTI rose about 5% to roughly US$92.75. S&P 500 futures are down about 0.6% and Dow futures about 1% after Wall Street's four-day winning streak ended Wednesday. The TSX fell about 1.7% Wednesday to near 35,040, led lower by the big banks and gold miners. The U.S. 10-year yield touched 5.36% on Wednesday, its highest since April 2002, and is hovering near 5.3% again. Markets are pricing in at least one Bank of Canada rate hike by year-end. Canada: TSX stumbles as banks and m...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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