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Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Wall Street as Futures Slide on Trump’s Iran Warning

  Markets tumbled Thursday morning as renewed geopolitical uncertainty sent U.S. stock futures sharply lower, with investors reacting to President Trump’s latest remarks that the war with Iran is “not yet over.”   U.S. stock futures stumbled early Thursday after President Trump’s national address failed to signal a clear end to the ongoing U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 600 points , while S&P 500 futures fell 1.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures slid 2% , reflecting heightened investor anxiety.  The market’s reaction was driven largely by Trump’s assertion that the conflict is not yet resolved, despite reports that Iran’s president has approached the U.S. about a potential ceasefire. Trump emphasized that any agreement would depend on reopening the Strait of Hormuz , a critical global energy chokepoint. He also warned that U.S. forces would “hit Iran hard” before any withdrawal in the coming weeks.  ...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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