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Bank of Canada Says More Rate Hikes Could Be Coming: What It Means for Your Mortgage and HELOC

  Canadian Money Brief  |  November 11, 2026 Bank of Canada Says More Rate Hikes Could Be Coming: What It Means for Your Mortgage and HELOC By the MoneySavings.ca team  •  6 min read The Bank of Canada raised its key rate on October 28, the first increase since 2023. Yesterday it signalled it may not be done. The summary of deliberations, released Tuesday, says Governing Council agreed there could be a need to raise the policy rate further, while taking decisions one meeting at a time. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage or a home equity line of credit (HELOC), that is a headline worth a few minutes. Here is what the Bank said, what another hike would cost, and what you can do before the next decision on December 9 . 2.50% Policy rate since Oct 28 4.70% Big-bank prime since Oct 29 3.5% BoC CPI forecast, end of 2026 Dec 9 Next rate decision What the Bank actually said The core of the story is energy. The Bank notes that the war in the Middle East is in its eig...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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