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5 Things to Know Today: 68,300 Jobs Lost, Loonie at 18-Month Low, BoC Hike Odds Fade

  CANADIAN MONEY BRIEF | SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2026 Canada's job losses pile up, the loonie slides to an 18-month low and the Bank of Canada's rate-hike case weakens. Here's what matters for your wallet this long weekend. 1 Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September Statistics Canada reported 68,300 fewer jobs in September, far worse than the roughly 9,200 gain economists polled by Reuters expected. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4%. It follows a 41,700 drop in August, which means Canada has now lost a net 41,200 jobs in 2026 (versus a gain of 211,300 at this point last year). Education plus health care and social assistance lost 58,400 jobs, manufacturing fell by 12,700 and youth employment (ages 15 to 24) dropped by 48,000. The participation rate slid to 64.8%, its lowest in 29 years outside the pandemic. What it means for you: Average hourly wages for permanent employees rose 2.3% year over year, which is slower than August inflation of 3.0%. If your pay isn'...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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