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12 Days to the Tariff Deadline: What August 19 Actually Means for Your Wallet

  Published August 7, 2026 Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc is back in Washington, Mark Carney says his tone is "quite firm," and the clock is running out on a deal. Here's what's actually on the line — and why it matters even if you've never shipped a case of wine across the border. The countdown: At 12:01 a.m. ET on August 19, new 50% U.S. tariffs are scheduled to hit roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian exports — with or without a deal. What's actually happening on August 19 On July 20, President Trump signed three separate proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 — a Depression-era provision that had never been used this way before. Each proclamation targets a different Canadian sector the U.S. says is treated unfairly: motor vehicles, alcoholic beverages, and dairy. Every covered good gets hit with an additional 50% tariff the moment it crosses into the U.S. The headline categories get the attention, but the actual product lists — buried ...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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