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Canada’s Auto Industry Is Split on a U.S. Tariff Deal: What It Means for Your Wallet

  Canadian Money Brief • Tariffs & Trade • Saturday, November 14, 2026 Ottawa is once again trying to land a tariff deal with Washington. This time, the biggest fight may be inside Canada's own auto industry, and the outcome could reach your paycheque, your car purchase and your savings. Canada's auto manufacturers agree on the goal: get U.S. tariffs on Canadian-built vehicles down. They do not agree on how fast to move or what to accept. According to a Globe and Mail report published overnight, the Detroit Three (Ford, GM and Stellantis) want a deal sooner rather than later, even an imperfect one, while Honda and Toyota are pushing Ottawa toward a very different design. It matters now because of the clock. Canadian-built vehicles already face a 25% U.S. tariff on their non-American content, and Washington has threatened to double the headline rate to 50% on January 1, 2027. Honda has warned that doubling would be catastrophic for the North American industry. Prime Minister...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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