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Trump’s Oct. 30 Tariff Swap: Who Wins, Who Loses, and What It Means for Your Wallet

  Canadian Money Brief • October 27, 2026 Washington just reshuffled the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods. Seaweed and packing boxes are out. Vinyl flooring, cocoa powder and shampoo are in. Here is who comes out ahead, who doesn't, and what to do with your money before the changes take effect on Oct. 30. The short version This is a reshuffle, not a rollback: more products are going onto the 50% list than coming off it, according to a KPMG Law trade lawyer. Politics is the driver. The exemptions followed U.S. Sen. Susan Collins' push, 10 days before the U.S. midterms. Canada's own counter-tariffs, which affect prices in your store, are not changing. A broad trade deal before the midterms looks unlikely. What's coming off, what's going on The White House changes take effect at the end of this month. Reports from CTV News and Money.ca describe the swap this way: Coming off the 50% list Going onto the 50% list Seaweed Packing boxes Some plywood sheets Certain paper and pl...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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