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Mark Carney: The Economist Who Took on Trump and Won

  Mark Carney, a former central banker, has emerged as Canada’s prime minister following a dramatic election that reshaped the political landscape. His victory was fueled by a surge of nationalism in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and trade policies. Trump’s threats to annex Canada as the “51st state” and impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods galvanized voters, turning Carney’s Liberal Party from underdogs to champions of Canadian sovereignty. Carney’s campaign centered on defending Canada’s independence and rebuilding its economy to reduce reliance on the United States. His experience as governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England lent credibility to his promises of economic resilience. In his victory speech, Carney declared, “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen”. The election results marked a stunning comeback for the Liberals, who were initially projected to lose to the oppositi...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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