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CUSMA Wasn’t Renewed: The 10-Year Clock Now Running on Your Job, Prices and Savings

  Canadian Money Brief | Feature CUSMA Wasn't Renewed: The 10-Year Clock Now Running on Your Job, Prices and Savings By MoneySavings.ca | Published November 2, 2026 Quick quiz: is Canada's free trade deal with the United States still in place? The honest answer is yes and no. The agreement known here as CUSMA is still in force, but since July 1 it has been on a different footing, and the way it plays out over the next decade matters to your paycheque, your grocery bill and your savings. Most of us missed the moment because nothing visibly changed that day. That is exactly why it deserves a closer look, especially with the federal budget arriving Thursday. The short version: CUSMA did not end. It moved from a long-term deal to a deal that gets reviewed every year until 2036. Roughly 90% of what Canada sells to the U.S. has been crossing the border tariff-free because of it, so each annual review is a chance for that protection to be tested. For households, this is a slow-burn r...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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