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CUSMA Renewal Deadline Passes: What It Means for Your Wallet

  July 8, 2026 July 1 came and went without a full renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Instead of locking in another 16-year term, the United States chose not to extend the deal in its current form, which means the trade pact now shifts into an annual review process for the next decade. Here's what that actually means for your money. What just happened All three countries had until July 1 to say whether they wanted to renew CUSMA. Because Washington opted against a full renewal, the agreement now gets reviewed annually rather than being locked in for over a decade. Canada's Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc confirmed the three countries agreed to keep talking, with Canada specifically pushing to address sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber. Any of the three countries can still walk away entirely with six months' notice. The good news: most trade stays tariff-free For now, the status quo holds. The bulk of Canadian exports to the U.S....
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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