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5 Things to Know Today: US CPI, BoC Minutes, Oil Below US$90 (Nov. 10)

  Tuesday, November 10, 2026. U.S. inflation data, Bank of Canada minutes and a sharp slide in oil headline your morning. Here is what matters for your wallet. 1. US inflation report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET Economists expect October U.S. consumer prices to rise 0.3% from September, slower than the 0.6% jump the month before, with core prices up 0.2%. There will be no annual rate this time because last year's government shutdown left a gap in the October 2025 data. Strong U.S. jobs numbers on Friday have already pushed the odds of a Fed rate hike on December 9 above 65%. What it means for you: U.S. rate expectations move Canadian bond yields, which set fixed mortgage rates, and they swing the loonie. A hot reading could push yields higher; a cool one could give borrowers a little breathing room. 2. Bank of Canada releases its rate-hike minutes at 1:30 p.m. ET The central bank publishes its summary of deliberations on the October 28 decision, when it raised its policy rate by a qua...
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Canada Econmy: How the Canadian Dollar Reacts to Oil Price Fluctuations

                                         


The Canadian dollar (CAD) is one of the most sensitive currencies to oil price movements. Canada is one of the world's largest oil producers and exporters, and oil revenues account for a significant share of its gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, when oil prices rise or fall, the CAD tends to follow suit.

In recent weeks, oil prices have been on a roller coaster ride, driven by various factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, demand outlooks and inflation expectations. The CAD has also experienced volatility, reflecting the changing market sentiment.

For example, on October 9, 2023, oil prices surged by more than 4% after an escalation of violence in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas raised fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region. The CAD gained strength against the US dollar (USD), as investors anticipated higher oil revenues for Canada. The USD/CAD pair dropped to 1.3620, extending the Loonie's rebound from its seven-month high of 1.3785 reached on October 5.

However, on October 11, 2023, oil prices pulled back as the Gaza situation eased and some OPEC members signaled their willingness to increase production to ease the global supply crunch. The CAD lost some of its recent gains, as oil revenues prospects dimmed. The USD/CAD pair rose to 1.3660, as the USD also benefited from better-than-expected US producer price index (PPI) data.

The next day, on October 12, 2023, oil prices resumed their upward trend, supported by strong demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The CAD regained some ground against the USD, as oil prices boosted Canada's terms of trade. The USD/CAD pair fell to 1.3600, as the USD also faced some pressure ahead of the US consumer price index (CPI) data due on October 13.

These examples illustrate how the CAD reacts to oil price fluctuations in the short term. However, in the long term, other factors such as interest rate differentials, fiscal policies, trade balances and economic growth may also influence the exchange rate. Therefore, investors should be aware of the multiple drivers of currency movements and not rely solely on oil prices as a predictor of the CAD's performance.

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