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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...

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Stock Markets: How High Interest Rates Are Hurting Bay Street

                                                    

Bay Street, the financial heart of Canada, is facing a tough challenge as interest rates rise and stock sales slow down. The Bank of Canada has raised its key interest rate four times since July 2020, reaching 1.75% in October 2023. This has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening the demand for stocks and other riskier assets.

According to data from Bloomberg, equity offerings in Canada have fallen by 32% in the first nine months of 2023 compared to the same period last year. The total value of stock sales was $23.4 billion, the lowest since 2016. The decline was especially sharp in the energy and mining sectors, which have been hit hard by lower commodity prices and environmental regulations.

Some analysts expect the slowdown to continue for the rest of the year and into 2024, as the Bank of Canada signals more rate hikes to curb inflation and cool down the overheated housing market. This could put more pressure on Bay Street firms, which rely on fees from underwriting and advising on stock sales to generate revenue.

However, not all is gloomy for Bay Street. Some sectors, such as technology and health care, have shown resilience and growth potential amid the pandemic and the economic recovery. Some companies, such as Shopify and Lightspeed, have raised billions of dollars in secondary offerings on U.S. exchanges, boosting their valuations and profiles. And some investors, such as pension funds and private equity firms, are still looking for opportunities to buy undervalued or distressed assets in Canada.

The challenge for Bay Street is to adapt to the changing market conditions and find new ways to serve its clients and attract capital. The future may not be as bright as it was before the pandemic, but it is not as dark as it may seem either.


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