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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Stock Markets: How High Interest Rates Are Hurting Bay Street

                                                    

Bay Street, the financial heart of Canada, is facing a tough challenge as interest rates rise and stock sales slow down. The Bank of Canada has raised its key interest rate four times since July 2020, reaching 1.75% in October 2023. This has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening the demand for stocks and other riskier assets.

According to data from Bloomberg, equity offerings in Canada have fallen by 32% in the first nine months of 2023 compared to the same period last year. The total value of stock sales was $23.4 billion, the lowest since 2016. The decline was especially sharp in the energy and mining sectors, which have been hit hard by lower commodity prices and environmental regulations.

Some analysts expect the slowdown to continue for the rest of the year and into 2024, as the Bank of Canada signals more rate hikes to curb inflation and cool down the overheated housing market. This could put more pressure on Bay Street firms, which rely on fees from underwriting and advising on stock sales to generate revenue.

However, not all is gloomy for Bay Street. Some sectors, such as technology and health care, have shown resilience and growth potential amid the pandemic and the economic recovery. Some companies, such as Shopify and Lightspeed, have raised billions of dollars in secondary offerings on U.S. exchanges, boosting their valuations and profiles. And some investors, such as pension funds and private equity firms, are still looking for opportunities to buy undervalued or distressed assets in Canada.

The challenge for Bay Street is to adapt to the changing market conditions and find new ways to serve its clients and attract capital. The future may not be as bright as it was before the pandemic, but it is not as dark as it may seem either.


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