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Bank of Canada Rate Decision Countdown: What to Expect on July 15

  Published July 4, 2026 In eleven days, the Bank of Canada will make its fifth interest rate call of 2026. If you've got a mortgage renewing, a variable rate that moves with the Bank's decisions, or savings sitting in a high-interest account, this is the date to have circled. Here's where things stand heading into July 15, and what the smart money is expecting. Where the rate sits right now The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since its last two decisions, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The July 15 announcement, released at 9:45 a.m. ET, will also come with a full Monetary Policy Report, since the Bank publishes its detailed economic projections quarterly alongside the January, April, July, and October decisions. Why most economists expect another hold The case for standing pat comes down to two forces pulling in opposite directions: Inflation is running hot, but mostly for one reason. Canada's headline inflation rate jumped...
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Stock Markets: How High Interest Rates Are Hurting Bay Street

                                                    

Bay Street, the financial heart of Canada, is facing a tough challenge as interest rates rise and stock sales slow down. The Bank of Canada has raised its key interest rate four times since July 2020, reaching 1.75% in October 2023. This has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening the demand for stocks and other riskier assets.

According to data from Bloomberg, equity offerings in Canada have fallen by 32% in the first nine months of 2023 compared to the same period last year. The total value of stock sales was $23.4 billion, the lowest since 2016. The decline was especially sharp in the energy and mining sectors, which have been hit hard by lower commodity prices and environmental regulations.

Some analysts expect the slowdown to continue for the rest of the year and into 2024, as the Bank of Canada signals more rate hikes to curb inflation and cool down the overheated housing market. This could put more pressure on Bay Street firms, which rely on fees from underwriting and advising on stock sales to generate revenue.

However, not all is gloomy for Bay Street. Some sectors, such as technology and health care, have shown resilience and growth potential amid the pandemic and the economic recovery. Some companies, such as Shopify and Lightspeed, have raised billions of dollars in secondary offerings on U.S. exchanges, boosting their valuations and profiles. And some investors, such as pension funds and private equity firms, are still looking for opportunities to buy undervalued or distressed assets in Canada.

The challenge for Bay Street is to adapt to the changing market conditions and find new ways to serve its clients and attract capital. The future may not be as bright as it was before the pandemic, but it is not as dark as it may seem either.


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