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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Stock Markets Today: Toronto Market Rises Amid Lower Bond Yields

                                             


The Toronto stock market closed at its highest level in two weeks on Wednesday, as investors welcomed the decline in bond yields that eased concerns about inflation and higher borrowing costs. The S&P/TSX composite index gained 0.8% to end the day at 20,872.64 points, led by gains in the energy, financial and industrial sectors. The Canadian dollar also appreciated against its U.S. counterpart, trading at 80.32 cents US, up from 79.96 cents US on Tuesday.

The lower bond yields, which reflect the cost of borrowing for governments and corporations, were driven by a weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation report for September. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. slowed to 5.4% from 5.7% in August, easing some fears that the Federal Reserve would have to tighten its monetary policy sooner than expected. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 1.53% from 1.59% on Tuesday, while the yield on the Canadian equivalent dropped to 1.41% from 1.47%.

The lower bond yields also boosted the appeal of dividend-paying stocks, such as banks and utilities, which tend to perform well when interest rates are low. The financial sector rose 1.2%, with all six of the major banks posting gains. The energy sector climbed 1.6%, as oil prices rose above $80 US a barrel for the first time since 2014, supported by strong demand and supply disruptions. The industrial sector advanced 0.9%, with shares of Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Railway both up more than 2%.

The positive mood on Bay Street contrasted with a mixed performance on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average added 0.3% to close at 34,987.02 points, while the S&P 500 index slipped 0.1% to 4,360.03 points and the Nasdaq composite index fell 0.5% to 14,543.13 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was weighed down by losses in some of the big-name companies, such as Apple, Amazon and Netflix, which are sensitive to higher interest rates and valuation concerns.

Analysts said that despite the lower bond yields and inflation data, investors remain cautious about the outlook for the global economy amid the ongoing pandemic and supply chain issues that are affecting many industries. They also noted that the earnings season, which kicked off this week with reports from some of the major U.S. banks, will provide more clues about how companies are coping with the challenges and opportunities in the post-Covid world.

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