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5 Things to Know Today: Canada’s Money Headlines

1. Bank of Canada expected to hold rates amid Iran‑war price pressures The Bank of Canada is preparing its next rate decision, with policymakers weighing inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict. Markets expect a hold as the Bank releases its new monetary policy report this week.  2. Oil & energy costs rise as global uncertainty persists Oil prices climbed more than US$2.50 as geopolitical tensions continue to influence global supply expectations. Canadian producers are also facing scrutiny, including Cenovus’s Newfoundland oilfield extension, which is projected to increase emissions by 21%. 3. Inflation pressures remain elevated for Canadian households Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in March , driven largely by higher gas prices. Rising costs continue to squeeze consumers, with food and essentials remaining stubbornly expensive.  4. Retail sales slow as Canadians pull back New data shows retail sales growth is losing momentum as households tighten bu...
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Why Higher Bond Yields May Not Stop the Bank of Canada from Raising Rates

                                                    


The Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, recently spoke at an IMF meeting in Morocco, where he addressed the issue of surging bond yields and their implications for monetary policy. Bond yields are the interest rates that investors demand to lend money to governments or corporations. They reflect the market's expectations of future inflation and economic growth.

Macklem said that higher bond yields have indeed tightened financial conditions, meaning that borrowing costs for businesses and individuals have increased. This could potentially slow down the economic recovery process, as consumers and firms may reduce their spending and investment plans.

However, he also emphasized that higher bond yields are not a substitute for doing what needs to be done to get inflation back to the Bank's 2% target. He said that the Bank is looking for clear signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing before deciding whether to raise its overnight rate, which is currently at 5%.

The Bank has hiked its rate 10 times in 18 months, but it still does not see inflation slowing to its target until mid-2025. Macklem said that the Bank will weigh the trade-off between letting previous rate hikes work through the economy or raising again to counter sticky inflation.

The next interest rate decision will be announced on Oct. 25, along with an update of the Bank's economic forecasts. Macklem said that the Bank is not forecasting a serious recession, despite the unexpected contraction in the second quarter and the stagnation in the first two months of the third quarter.

He also expressed confidence in the strength of the labor market and the wage growth that will help households cope with higher mortgage rates when they renew their loans. The five-year yield on Canada's bonds has surged as high as 4.461% this month, its highest level in 16 years.

The Bank of Canada faces a delicate balancing act between supporting the economic recovery and containing inflation. Higher bond yields may make its job harder, but they may not deter it from raising rates if inflation remains stubbornly high.

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