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Iran–U.S. Gulf Strikes Escalate: What It Means for Your Canadian Wallet

  The Persian Gulf is on edge again — and this time, the ripple effects are showing up at Canadian gas pumps and grocery stores. On Wednesday, June 3, Iranian drones struck Kuwait's main airport, temporarily shutting it down and killing one person. The U.S. military struck back, targeting an Iranian military ground control station on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. It is the latest in a series of back-and-forth military exchanges that are pushing a fragile ceasefire to the breaking point. What Is Happening Right Now? Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard confirmed it targeted U.S. military facilities — including the headquarters of the Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain — in retaliation for American strikes on Iranian territory. The U.S. responded with strikes on Qeshm Island. Meanwhile, semiofficial Iranian news agencies reported that Tehran has halted communications with ceasefire mediators, saying it wants the fighting in Lebanon resolved before any broader truce can be...
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Why Higher Bond Yields May Not Stop the Bank of Canada from Raising Rates

                                                    


The Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, recently spoke at an IMF meeting in Morocco, where he addressed the issue of surging bond yields and their implications for monetary policy. Bond yields are the interest rates that investors demand to lend money to governments or corporations. They reflect the market's expectations of future inflation and economic growth.

Macklem said that higher bond yields have indeed tightened financial conditions, meaning that borrowing costs for businesses and individuals have increased. This could potentially slow down the economic recovery process, as consumers and firms may reduce their spending and investment plans.

However, he also emphasized that higher bond yields are not a substitute for doing what needs to be done to get inflation back to the Bank's 2% target. He said that the Bank is looking for clear signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing before deciding whether to raise its overnight rate, which is currently at 5%.

The Bank has hiked its rate 10 times in 18 months, but it still does not see inflation slowing to its target until mid-2025. Macklem said that the Bank will weigh the trade-off between letting previous rate hikes work through the economy or raising again to counter sticky inflation.

The next interest rate decision will be announced on Oct. 25, along with an update of the Bank's economic forecasts. Macklem said that the Bank is not forecasting a serious recession, despite the unexpected contraction in the second quarter and the stagnation in the first two months of the third quarter.

He also expressed confidence in the strength of the labor market and the wage growth that will help households cope with higher mortgage rates when they renew their loans. The five-year yield on Canada's bonds has surged as high as 4.461% this month, its highest level in 16 years.

The Bank of Canada faces a delicate balancing act between supporting the economic recovery and containing inflation. Higher bond yields may make its job harder, but they may not deter it from raising rates if inflation remains stubbornly high.

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