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Mark Carney: The Economist Who Took on Trump and Won

  Mark Carney, a former central banker, has emerged as Canada’s prime minister following a dramatic election that reshaped the political landscape. His victory was fueled by a surge of nationalism in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and trade policies. Trump’s threats to annex Canada as the “51st state” and impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods galvanized voters, turning Carney’s Liberal Party from underdogs to champions of Canadian sovereignty. Carney’s campaign centered on defending Canada’s independence and rebuilding its economy to reduce reliance on the United States. His experience as governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England lent credibility to his promises of economic resilience. In his victory speech, Carney declared, “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen”. The election results marked a stunning comeback for the Liberals, who were initially projected to lose to the oppositi...
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Banks face challenges as fiscal year ends

                                     

The fiscal year 2023 has been a tough one for Canada’s major banks, as they faced rising costs, regulatory pressures and credit risks. Analysts expect their fourth-quarter earnings, which will be reported this week, to show a decline from last year.

Some of the challenges that the banks encountered this year include:

  • Cost-cutting measures: Some banks, such as RBC and Scotiabank, have reduced their work force and real estate holdings to lower their expenses. Others, such as BMO, have completed or planned major integrations of their acquisitions.
  • Regulatory scrutiny: TD Bank is awaiting the outcome of investigations by U.S. authorities over its anti-money-laundering practices, which could result in fines or other penalties. RBC’s proposed takeover of HSBC’s Canadian unit has also faced opposition from political and environmental groups.
  • Credit risks: As interest rates rise and inflation persists, the banks have increased their provisions for potential loan losses, anticipating higher defaults from their borrowers. The banks are also required to hold more capital by the banking watchdog, OSFI, to cushion against an economic downturn.
  • Slow loan growth: The demand for lending has been dampened by the high cost of borrowing and the uncertainty over the economic recovery. The banks have also faced stiff competition from fintechs and other non-bank lenders, who offer more convenient and cheaper alternatives.

Despite these headwinds, the banks are still well-positioned to weather the storm, as they have strong capital ratios, diversified businesses and loyal customers. The banks are also investing in digital transformation, innovation and growth opportunities, especially in international markets. Analysts and investors will be looking for signs of resilience and optimism from the banks as they wrap up the fiscal year.

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