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Fed Poised for First 2025 Rate Cut as Weak Jobs Data Outweigh Inflation Concerns

  The Federal Reserve seal at its Washington, D.C. headquarters, where policymakers are set to decide on the first interest rate cut of 2025. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, marking its first rate cut of 2025 and the first since December last year. The move would bring the federal funds target range down to 4.00%–4.25%, as policymakers respond to slowing job growth and rising unemployment, even as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Recent labor market data showed just 22,000 jobs added in August, with earlier months revised downward, while the unemployment rate has climbed to around 4.3%. Inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred PCE index, has edged higher in recent months, partly due to tariffs pushing up consumer prices. Markets have largely priced in the cut, with investors watching the Fed’s updated “dot plot” for clues on whether more reductions will follow in October and December. The decision ...
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How the Liberals plan to tackle inflation, climate change, and political woes in the fall economic update

 


The fall economic update is a crucial moment for the Liberal government, as it faces mounting pressure from opposition parties, provinces, businesses and civil society groups to address the ongoing challenges.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is set to present the fall economic statement on Tuesday, a document that will make billions in loans available for homebuilders and earmark a fund for affordable housing.

The update, will reveal the state of the federal finances and outline the government's spending plans for the next fiscal year. However, the Liberals have a narrow window of opportunity to advance their agenda, as they hold a minority of seats in the House of Commons and depend on the support of other parties to pass legislation. With the possibility of an election looming in 2024, the Liberals are running out of time to deliver on their promises and convince Canadians that they have a vision for the future.

Here are some of the challenges and opportunities facing the Liberal government as it prepares to deliver its fall economic statement. 

  • Economic slowdown: The Canadian economy is expected to grow by only 1.7 per cent this year, down from 3 per cent in 2021, due to factors such as supply chain disruptions, labour shortages, and high inflation.
  • Political pressure: The Liberals are trailing the Conservatives in the polls, and face criticism from opposition parties and provincial premiers over their handling of the pandemic, health care, and climate change.
  • Fiscal constraints: The Liberals have already spent more than $600 billion on pandemic relief measures, and have committed to new spending on social programs, infrastructure, and reconciliation. However, they also have to balance the budget by 2028 and keep the debt-to-GDP ratio stable.
  • Cost-of-living measures: The Liberals are expected to announce targeted measures to help low- and middle-income Canadians cope with rising prices, such as increasing the Canada Child Benefit, expanding the Canada Workers Benefit, and extending the rent subsidy.
  • Green growth: The Liberals are also likely to unveil initiatives to support the transition to a low-carbon economy, such as creating a Canada Growth Fund to attract private investment in clean technology, offering tax credits for renewable electricity and hydrogen production, and introducing a tax on corporate share buybacks.
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