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The Mortgage Renewal Wave Just Peaked — Here's What the Data Actually Shows

Published August 30, 2026 For three years, "the mortgage renewal wall" has been the scariest phrase in Canadian personal finance — the idea that a flood of ultra-cheap, pandemic-era mortgages would come due at much higher rates and trigger a wave of forced sales. That wall is now mostly behind us. Two new 2026 surveys, one from Royal LePage and one from Rates.ca, show what actually happened when it hit. The short version: it hurt, budgets tightened hard for a lot of people, but the mass default many feared simply didn't show up. The last big group is renewing right now Royal LePage's 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey, released August 19 and based on a Leger poll of 1,127 Canadians renewing this year, pins down where things stand: about 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages are five-year, fixed-payment loans taken out during the 2020–2022 ultra-low-rate window, and this is their last major renewal wave. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate sat at just 0.25% through m...

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New home buyers in trouble as mortgage rates soar

Some buyers who purchased preconstruction homes are finding themselves unable to close on their properties due to rising mortgage rates and stricter lending rules. As a result, they are resorting to selling their contracts to other buyers at a discount, or even giving up their deposits and facing legal risks.

According to Robert McLister, an interest rate analyst and mortgage strategist, this trend is creating opportunities for bargain hunters who are looking for assignment deals. These are transactions where the original buyer transfers their rights and obligations to a new buyer before the home is completed.

However, assignment deals are not without challenges and costs. Both assignors and assignees need to get approval from the builder, pay fees and taxes, and secure financing. Moreover, they need to be aware of the market conditions and the potential risks of flipping or renting out the property.

McLister advises buyers to start evaluating their options early and seek professional help from a tax-savvy accountant, a mortgage broker, and a real estate lawyer. He also suggests that buyers should monitor the bond yields and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, as they may affect the future demand and prices of new homes.

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