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5 Things to Know Today: US Inflation Day, Canada’s Job Losses and Oil Near $106 | Oct. 14, 2026

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Good morning. The biggest number of the day lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it could shape where mortgage rates and the loonie go next. Here are the five things worth knowing before you start your day. 1 US inflation report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET September U.S. CPI is the last major inflation reading before the Fed meets Oct. 27–28. Economists expect headline inflation to climb to roughly 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4% in August, a gasoline-driven jump of about 0.6% on the month, while core inflation is seen cooling to around 0.2% month over month. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, but September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, and markets now see roughly a one-in-four chance of another hike in October, with December still largely priced in. What it means for you: A hotter-than-expected print can push bond yields higher, and Canadian fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year bond. A cooler one eases the pressu...
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TSX gains on hopes of rate hike pause

 

The TSX closed slightly higher on Wednesday, as some sectors that benefit from lower interest rates rose amid signs that central banks may not tighten monetary policy further. The Canadian and U.S. economies added fewer jobs than expected in October, easing inflation fears and boosting bond prices. The TSX composite index ended up 3.5 points, or 0.02%, at 20,264.59.

The financials sector, which accounts for about a third of the TSX’s weight, gained 0.6%, as lower bond yields reduce borrowing costs and increase the value of future cash flows. The real estate sector, which is also sensitive to interest rates, climbed 1.2%, while the consumer discretionary sector, which includes retailers and auto parts makers, rose 0.9%

The energy sector, however, fell 1.1%, as oil prices dropped 2.4% to $80.51 a barrel, amid concerns about rising U.S. crude inventories and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global demand. The materials sector, which includes miners and fertilizer producers, also declined 0.7%, as base metal and gold prices retreated.

For the week, the TSX was down 0.4%, as a jump in bond yields earlier in the week weighed on interest-rate sensitive sectors such as technology and utilities. The TSX is still up 18.6% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500, which is up 15.8%.

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