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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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TSX gains on hopes of rate hike pause

 

The TSX closed slightly higher on Wednesday, as some sectors that benefit from lower interest rates rose amid signs that central banks may not tighten monetary policy further. The Canadian and U.S. economies added fewer jobs than expected in October, easing inflation fears and boosting bond prices. The TSX composite index ended up 3.5 points, or 0.02%, at 20,264.59.

The financials sector, which accounts for about a third of the TSX’s weight, gained 0.6%, as lower bond yields reduce borrowing costs and increase the value of future cash flows. The real estate sector, which is also sensitive to interest rates, climbed 1.2%, while the consumer discretionary sector, which includes retailers and auto parts makers, rose 0.9%

The energy sector, however, fell 1.1%, as oil prices dropped 2.4% to $80.51 a barrel, amid concerns about rising U.S. crude inventories and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global demand. The materials sector, which includes miners and fertilizer producers, also declined 0.7%, as base metal and gold prices retreated.

For the week, the TSX was down 0.4%, as a jump in bond yields earlier in the week weighed on interest-rate sensitive sectors such as technology and utilities. The TSX is still up 18.6% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500, which is up 15.8%.

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