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5 Things to Know Today: Fed Decision Looms, TSX Slides, Gas Prices Climb (Sept 16)

  Wednesday, September 16, 2026 The Fed's biggest decision in years lands at 2 p.m. ET today, the TSX and loonie are both licking their wounds, and drivers are paying more at the pump despite the gas tax holiday. Here's what's moving your money this morning. 1. The Fed Decides on Rates Today — and a Hike Looks All but Certain The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow at 2:30 p.m. Markets have priced in over 90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, which would lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00% from 3.50%–3.75%, where it's sat since December. It would be the first hike of this cycle, driven by inflation still running above target even as the labour market holds up. What it means for you: A Fed hike widens the gap with the Bank of Canada's 2.25% rate, which tends to pressure the loonie lower and nudge Canadian bond yields — and by extension fixed mortgage pricing — upward. Watch for the reaction ...
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TSX gains on hopes of rate hike pause

 

The TSX closed slightly higher on Wednesday, as some sectors that benefit from lower interest rates rose amid signs that central banks may not tighten monetary policy further. The Canadian and U.S. economies added fewer jobs than expected in October, easing inflation fears and boosting bond prices. The TSX composite index ended up 3.5 points, or 0.02%, at 20,264.59.

The financials sector, which accounts for about a third of the TSX’s weight, gained 0.6%, as lower bond yields reduce borrowing costs and increase the value of future cash flows. The real estate sector, which is also sensitive to interest rates, climbed 1.2%, while the consumer discretionary sector, which includes retailers and auto parts makers, rose 0.9%

The energy sector, however, fell 1.1%, as oil prices dropped 2.4% to $80.51 a barrel, amid concerns about rising U.S. crude inventories and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global demand. The materials sector, which includes miners and fertilizer producers, also declined 0.7%, as base metal and gold prices retreated.

For the week, the TSX was down 0.4%, as a jump in bond yields earlier in the week weighed on interest-rate sensitive sectors such as technology and utilities. The TSX is still up 18.6% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500, which is up 15.8%.

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