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BoC Holds at 2.25%: What the Rate Decision (and Rising Gas Prices) Mean for Your Wallet

  Thursday, July 16, 2026 Sixth consecutive hold. A weaker 2026 growth forecast. And inflation that's running hotter because of gas prices, not the usual suspects. Here's what actually changes for you. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, exactly as markets expected. No surprise there. What's more interesting is why it held, and what it revealed about where the economy — and your bills — are headed next. This was the sixth straight hold since the Bank finished its easing cycle back in October. But buried in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report were a few numbers worth your attention. The Numbers That Matter Overnight Rate 2.25% (unchanged) Prime Rate (typical) 4.45% 2026 GDP Growth Forecast 0.7% (cut from 1.2%) 2027 / 2028 Growth Forecast 1.8% each year May CPI Inflation 3.2% Inflation Excluding Gasoline 2.2% Unemployment Rate (June) 6.5% Next Rate Decision September 2, 2026 Why Gas Prices Are Driving This Decision Here's the twist in th...
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Bank of Canada keeps interest rate at 5%, warns of future hikes

 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced on Wednesday that it is maintaining its key interest rate at 5% for the eighth consecutive time, citing the need to balance the risks of high inflation and a slowing economy.

The central bank said that inflation has been running above its 2% target for several months, mainly due to higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions. However, it also noted that the economy is facing headwinds from the Omicron variant of COVID-19, which has led to renewed public health measures and uncertainty.

The BoC said that it expects inflation to moderate in the second half of 2024, as the effects of transitory factors fade and the output gap closes. It also said that it will continue to monitor the evolution of the economy and the pandemic, and that it is prepared to raise interest rates further if needed to achieve its inflation objective.

The BoC’s decision was widely expected by analysts, who have been speculating on the timing of the next rate hike. Some believe that the BoC will raise rates as early as January, while others think that it will wait until April or later, depending on the impact of the Omicron variant on the economy.

The BoC’s key interest rate affects the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses, as well as the value of the Canadian dollar. A higher interest rate tends to attract foreign investors, boosting the demand for the loonie. The Canadian dollar was trading at 79.32 US cents on Wednesday, up slightly from 79.25 US cents on Tuesday.


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