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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Canadian Housing Starts Plunge 22% in November as Higher Rates Bite



Canadian housing starts fell by 22% in November from the previous month, missing estimates by a wide margin, as higher borrowing costs hurt groundbreaking on multiple unit and single-family detached urban homes, data from the national housing agency showed on Friday.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts fell to 212,624 units from a downwardly revised 272,264 units in October, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said. Economists polled by Reuters expected starts to decrease to 257,100 in November.

As the more difficult borrowing conditions and labour shortages now seem to be showing in the starts numbers, we can expect to see continued slower starts rates in the coming months, according to CMHC’s deputy chief economist Kevin Hughes.


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