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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canadian Housing Starts Plunge 22% in November as Higher Rates Bite



Canadian housing starts fell by 22% in November from the previous month, missing estimates by a wide margin, as higher borrowing costs hurt groundbreaking on multiple unit and single-family detached urban homes, data from the national housing agency showed on Friday.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts fell to 212,624 units from a downwardly revised 272,264 units in October, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said. Economists polled by Reuters expected starts to decrease to 257,100 in November.

As the more difficult borrowing conditions and labour shortages now seem to be showing in the starts numbers, we can expect to see continued slower starts rates in the coming months, according to CMHC’s deputy chief economist Kevin Hughes.


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