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Lock In or Stay Variable? What Every Canadian Homeowner Must Decide Before April 29

   Bank of Canada headquarters, Ottawa. Overnight rate held at 2.25% since October 2025. Next decision: April 29, 2026.  The Bank of Canada has held its rate at 2.25% for three straight decisions — but with inflation creeping back up, a Middle East conflict pushing oil prices, and over one million mortgage renewals on the horizon, the stakes of getting this wrong have never been higher. The Canadian Money Brief April 25, 2026 6 min read THE CANADIAN MONEY BRIEF BANK OF CANADA 2.25% 2.25% POLICY RATE HELD SINCE OCT. 2025 · THIRD CONSECUTIVE HOLD NEXT DECISION: APR. 29, 2026 If your mortgage is coming up for renewal in the next six to eighteen months, the question keeping you up at night is probably this: do I lock in a fixed rate now — or do I ride out a variable rate and hope the Bank of Canada does something helpful? It's the right question to be asking. And right now, the answer is more complicated — and more consequential — than it has been in years. The Bank of Canada...
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Economic Headwinds: Canada Braces for a Challenging Year Ahead

 

As the world cautiously emerges from an aggressive cycle of interest rate hikes, a sense of optimism has begun to permeate global markets. The United States, in particular, has exceeded economic growth expectations. However, this newfound hope may not extend to Canada, where economists warn of tougher times ahead.

High Recession Risks: Canada faces a unique set of challenges, including high household debt and a housing market that’s cooling more rapidly than anticipated. Economists from Toronto Dominion and Bank of Montreal predict a “bumpier landing” for Canada, with growth expected to decelerate sharply in the coming year.

Consumer Spending Slowdown: The tightening of consumer belts is anticipated to peak soon, significantly slowing spending and contributing to an economic slowdown. Business investments are also expected to retract, further dampening growth prospects.

Potential Rate Cuts: In response to stalling growth, the Bank of Canada may initiate interest rate cuts as early as spring. While the exact timing and extent of these cuts remain uncertain, they represent a glimmer of hope for an economy on the brink of recession.

In conclusion, while the global economy shows signs of recovery, Canada must navigate a precarious path, balancing the need for fiscal prudence with measures to stimulate growth and mitigate the risk of a recession.

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