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Rising Tensions in the Gulf as Iran Threatens Oil Blockade

                                     An aerial view of the Iranian shores and Port of Bandar Abbas in the strait of Hormuz Iran has escalated regional tensions by declaring it will block all oil shipments from the Middle East if U.S. and Israeli attacks persist, prompting a stark warning from President Donald Trump of a far stronger American military response.  The Revolutionary Guards’ vow to halt “one litre of oil” from leaving the region has already rattled global markets, contributing to falling crude prices and surging equities as investors brace for potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies. Trump responded by threatening unprecedented retaliation should Iran follow through, insisting the U.S. would strike “much harder” to ensure oil exports remain uninterrupted.  Despite the heated rhetoric, he expressed confid...
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Loonie gains as oil prices climb and Fed rate hike seen unlikely

The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as oil prices rose and investors bet that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates at a meeting this week.

The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3565 to the greenback, or 73.74 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3548 to 1.3590. Last week, the currency touched its weakest in nearly five weeks at 1.3599.

Oil prices climbed on Monday, supported by expectations of tighter supply and signs of economic recovery. Canada is a major exporter of crude oil, so the loonie tends to benefit from higher oil prices.

Investors were also looking ahead to the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday, which is widely expected to deliver a rate hike of 50 basis points, the first since 2018. However, some analysts said the Fed could signal a pause in its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing growth and inflation in the U.S.

“The market is pricing in a very dovish Fed, which is supportive for the Canadian dollar,” said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. “The Fed is likely to acknowledge the downside risks to the outlook and may hint at a slower pace of rate hikes next year.”

Rai said he expected the loonie to strengthen to 1.33 per U.S. dollar by the end of the year, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintains its hawkish stance. The BoC has raised its benchmark rate four times this year to 4.25%, the highest in nearly 15 years, and has said it will study the most recent economic data to gauge whether to hike further.

The Canadian dollar was also supported by domestic data that showed the value of building permits rose by 2.5% in October, beating market expectations of a 0.5% decline.

Canadian government bond yields rose across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was up 3.4 basis points at 2.916%.

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