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Why Interest Rates Matter for Canadians

Interest rates are the single most powerful lever in Canada's economy.  When the Bank of Canada adjusts its policy rate, the effects reach every household—from the cost of carrying a mortgage to the return on a savings account. With rates currently at 2.25% and significant uncertainty ahead, understanding how rates work has never been more important for your finances. What Is the Bank of Canada's Policy Rate? The Bank of Canada sets the overnight policy rate—the interest rate at which major banks lend money to each other. This rate serves as a benchmark that influences borrowing and lending costs across the entire economy. When the Bank raises or lowers this rate, commercial banks adjust their prime rates accordingly, which directly affects the rates you pay on mortgages, lines of credit, and other loans. The Bank's primary goal is to keep inflation near its 2% target. When inflation runs too hot, the Bank raises rates to cool spending. When the economy slows, it cuts rates...
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Loonie gains as oil prices climb and Fed rate hike seen unlikely

The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as oil prices rose and investors bet that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates at a meeting this week.

The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3565 to the greenback, or 73.74 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3548 to 1.3590. Last week, the currency touched its weakest in nearly five weeks at 1.3599.

Oil prices climbed on Monday, supported by expectations of tighter supply and signs of economic recovery. Canada is a major exporter of crude oil, so the loonie tends to benefit from higher oil prices.

Investors were also looking ahead to the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday, which is widely expected to deliver a rate hike of 50 basis points, the first since 2018. However, some analysts said the Fed could signal a pause in its tightening cycle amid signs of slowing growth and inflation in the U.S.

“The market is pricing in a very dovish Fed, which is supportive for the Canadian dollar,” said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. “The Fed is likely to acknowledge the downside risks to the outlook and may hint at a slower pace of rate hikes next year.”

Rai said he expected the loonie to strengthen to 1.33 per U.S. dollar by the end of the year, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintains its hawkish stance. The BoC has raised its benchmark rate four times this year to 4.25%, the highest in nearly 15 years, and has said it will study the most recent economic data to gauge whether to hike further.

The Canadian dollar was also supported by domestic data that showed the value of building permits rose by 2.5% in October, beating market expectations of a 0.5% decline.

Canadian government bond yields rose across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was up 3.4 basis points at 2.916%.

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