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Bond Yields Are Nearing 5%: What It Means for Your Mortgage and HELOC

  Published September 11, 2026 Something is happening in the bond market this week that matters more to your wallet than the daily swings in the TSX. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed in on 5% on Friday — 4.95% , its highest level since 2023 and approaching territory not seen since 2007 — after climbing 18 basis points in a single week. Canadian bond yields have followed the same path: the 10-year Government of Canada bond hit its highest level in over two years earlier this month, and the 5-year bond — the one that actually sets your fixed mortgage rate — has drifted up to roughly 3.41%, about a quarter-point higher than it was a month ago. If you're renewing a mortgage, shopping for a HELOC, or just trying to figure out whether now is the moment to lock in, here's what's actually going on and what it means for your payments. Why bond yields, not the Bank of Canada, are driving fixed rates right now It's a common mix-up: people watch the Bank of Canada...
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S&P 500 Inches Closer to Record High Amid Optimism About Fed’s Policy and Year-End Effect

 

The S&P 500 index closed just shy of a new record high on Thursday, with the broad index gaining 0.04%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.03%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%. Markets are ending 2023 on a hot streak, with all three indexes on pace for a ninth consecutive weekly gain. For the S&P 500, that would mark the longest streak since January 2004. The index is now within 0.3% of its all-time high, set in January 2022. With one trading session remaining in 2023, the S&P 500 is up 25%.

Investors are optimistic that the Federal Reserve can successfully cool inflation without inducing a major economic slowdown, which has powered the market’s recent advance. Now, some investors say the looming end of the calendar year is giving markets an extra boost. “Nobody who has caught this rally wants to incur a taxable event,” said Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. “If nobody wants to sell, prices will push higher on low volume”.

The jobless claims data released by the Labor Department on Thursday indicated a gradual cooling of the economy. Initial jobless claims, considered a proxy for layoffs, were 218,000 in the week ending Dec. 23, slightly more than the 215,000 that economists expected.

Bond yields rose as prices fell, reflecting expectations of higher inflation and interest rates. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.849%, up from 3.7%.

Some investors are increasing their exposure to energy and industrial stocks, which could benefit from a strong economic recovery. Matt Dmytryszyn, chief investment officer at Telemus Capital, said his fund is boosting its position in shares of energy and industrial firms.


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