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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Stocks Rally, Yields Fall on Fed’s Mixed Messages



The stock market rallied and bond yields fell after the Federal Reserve sent mixed messages about its future policy. 

The Federal Reserve is in a “sweet spot” and may start cutting interest rates in the first half of 2024. The rally in the bond market is driving global bonds to their best month since 2008. The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged and appeared in no hurry to remove negative interest rates. The yen slumped as much as 1.1% to the weakest level in a week, while the Nikkei 225 Index rallied 1.4% to a two-week high.


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