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Big Bank Earnings Are In: What They Reveal About Your Mortgage Stress

  August 26, 2026 Canada's biggest banks are in the middle of reporting Q3 2026 results, and so far the headline numbers look strong. BMO and Scotiabank both beat analyst estimates this week, and National Bank of Canada reported this morning. RBC, TD, and CIBC follow Thursday, closing out the sector's earnings season. But the number that actually matters to most Canadians isn't profit — it's what the banks are setting aside for loans that might go bad, and what they're saying about who's struggling to keep up. That's where the picture gets more interesting than the headlines suggest. The headline numbers BMO kicked off the week with adjusted profit up 22% year-over-year and return on equity climbing to 14%, with the bank reiterating its target of 15% ROE by the end of fiscal 2027. Scotiabank posted what CEO Scott Thomson called a record quarter: net income of $3 billion, up 21% year-over-year, with adjusted ROE hitting 14.2% — clearing the bank's own med...
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Toronto home prices drop as affordability and interest rates bite

 

Toronto’s housing market cooled down in November as higher borrowing costs and inflation pressures dampened demand and lowered prices. According to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the seasonally adjusted average home price fell 2.2% in November from October to C$1,104,062 ($815,769), marking the fourth decline in the last five months.

The average price was also down 18.9% from the record high of C$1,361,779 reached in February 2022, when the market was fueled by low interest rates, limited supply, and strong buyer appetite. Compared to November last year, the average price was up a modest 0.3%.

“Affordability has been a key issue in the GTA housing market this year. Inflation and elevated borrowing costs have taken their toll on affordability. This has been no more apparent than in the interest rate-sensitive housing market,” TRREB President Paul Baron said in a statement.

The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate four times this year to 5%, a 22-year high, in an attempt to curb inflation that has soared to 4.7% in October, the highest level since 2003. The higher rates have increased the cost of mortgages for home buyers and reduced their purchasing power.

However, some relief may be on the way, as money markets are betting that the central bank will pause its tightening cycle and start cutting rates as soon as March 2024, amid signs of slowing economic growth and easing inflation pressures.

“Bond yields, which underpin fixed rate mortgages have been trending lower and an increasing number of forecasters are anticipating Bank of Canada rate cuts in the first half of 2024,” Baron said.

Meanwhile, home sales in the GTA edged higher for the first time in six months, rising 1.7% in November from October to 4,932 homes, on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, sales were still down 6% from November last year, reflecting the impact of the pandemic and the policy measures on the market activity.

New listings also increased 16.5% year-over-year in November, but at a slower pace than the 38% surge in October, indicating that some sellers may be holding back in anticipation of better market conditions.

TRREB said that despite the recent slowdown, the GTA housing market remains fundamentally strong, supported by solid population growth, improving labour market, and low inventory levels. The board expects the market to regain momentum in 2024, as the economy recovers from the pandemic and the interest rates stabilize.

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