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BoC Set to Hike Into a Weak Economy: What It Means for You

  Canadian Money Brief • Feature Monday, October 26, 2026 • Written ahead of the 9:45 a.m. ET decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28 The Bank of Canada is about to do something that looks backwards. Jobs are disappearing, the housing market is sluggish, and yet money markets and most economists expect the central bank to raise its key rate on Wednesday. If it happens, your budget gets squeezed from two directions at once: higher borrowing costs and a shakier job market. The short version • Expected move: +0.25 point to 2.50% on Oct. 28, up from 2.25% • Reuters poll: 56% of economists (19 of 34) call for a hike, and a majority see one more by end of March • Why now: energy-driven inflation (3.1% in September) and a bank worried it spreads • The catch: 68,300 jobs lost in September , unemployment at 6.5% Why would the bank hike when the economy is wobbling? Reuters reports the Bank of Canada is expected to raise its rate as a pre-emptive strike: the goal is to stop an oil-driven jump in p...
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Toronto home prices drop as affordability and interest rates bite

 

Toronto’s housing market cooled down in November as higher borrowing costs and inflation pressures dampened demand and lowered prices. According to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the seasonally adjusted average home price fell 2.2% in November from October to C$1,104,062 ($815,769), marking the fourth decline in the last five months.

The average price was also down 18.9% from the record high of C$1,361,779 reached in February 2022, when the market was fueled by low interest rates, limited supply, and strong buyer appetite. Compared to November last year, the average price was up a modest 0.3%.

“Affordability has been a key issue in the GTA housing market this year. Inflation and elevated borrowing costs have taken their toll on affordability. This has been no more apparent than in the interest rate-sensitive housing market,” TRREB President Paul Baron said in a statement.

The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate four times this year to 5%, a 22-year high, in an attempt to curb inflation that has soared to 4.7% in October, the highest level since 2003. The higher rates have increased the cost of mortgages for home buyers and reduced their purchasing power.

However, some relief may be on the way, as money markets are betting that the central bank will pause its tightening cycle and start cutting rates as soon as March 2024, amid signs of slowing economic growth and easing inflation pressures.

“Bond yields, which underpin fixed rate mortgages have been trending lower and an increasing number of forecasters are anticipating Bank of Canada rate cuts in the first half of 2024,” Baron said.

Meanwhile, home sales in the GTA edged higher for the first time in six months, rising 1.7% in November from October to 4,932 homes, on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, sales were still down 6% from November last year, reflecting the impact of the pandemic and the policy measures on the market activity.

New listings also increased 16.5% year-over-year in November, but at a slower pace than the 38% surge in October, indicating that some sellers may be holding back in anticipation of better market conditions.

TRREB said that despite the recent slowdown, the GTA housing market remains fundamentally strong, supported by solid population growth, improving labour market, and low inventory levels. The board expects the market to regain momentum in 2024, as the economy recovers from the pandemic and the interest rates stabilize.

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