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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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US Dollar Plummets as Federal Reserve Signals Rate Cuts in 2024

 


The US dollar has taken a hit after the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections indicated that the interest-rate hike cycle has come to an end and lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024 . The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a fifth day as fears of a recession and dovish Fed commentary spurred investors to wager the central bank will have to reverse its most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s .

The US dollar has fallen to a four-month low after the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections indicated that the interest-rate hike cycle has come to an end and lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024 . The dollar slid to the weakest level since early August as swap traders ramp up bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as May. 

The dollar remains vulnerable until we see a shift in market expectations for the Fed and that may be a 2024 story. With the dollar rally stalled, it will take some firm real sector data to challenge the current dovish Fed narrative.

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