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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Canada’s Economy at Risk Due to Global Trade Disputes.

 

According to a trade expert, Canada is expected to face a challenging year due to global trade disputes. Mark Warner, principal counsel at MAAW Law, believes that Canada will be caught up in disputes between the United States, its biggest trade partner, and China and “sideswiped” as the U.S. ramps up enforcement of export controls.

The ongoing trade disputes could have a significant impact on Canada’s economy. The country’s relationship with China is already “a mixed-bag,” and the U.S. is expected to increase enforcement of export controls, which could further complicate matters.


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