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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...

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Canada’s Job Market Remains Steady in December 2023



Canada’s economy added just 100 jobs in December and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.8 per cent, according to Statistics Canada. Employment growth slowed in the second half of 2023, averaging 23,000 per month, compared with the first six months of 2023, when it averaged 48,000 per month. At the same time, average hourly wages increased 5.4 per cent year-over-year, following a rise of 4.8 per cent in November.

Canada’s job market remained steady in December 2023, with the economy adding just 100 jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.8 per cent, according to Statistics Canada. The data agency said that employment was virtually unchanged from November, following an increase of 25,000 jobs the previous month. Employment growth slowed in the second half of 2023, averaging 23,000 per month, compared with the first six months of 2023, when it averaged 48,000 per month. At the same time, average hourly wages increased 5.4 per cent year-over-year, following a rise of 4.8 per cent in November. This is a significant increase in wages, which could help to offset the slower employment growth in the second half of the year.


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