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Fed Poised for First 2025 Rate Cut as Weak Jobs Data Outweigh Inflation Concerns

  The Federal Reserve seal at its Washington, D.C. headquarters, where policymakers are set to decide on the first interest rate cut of 2025. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, marking its first rate cut of 2025 and the first since December last year. The move would bring the federal funds target range down to 4.00%–4.25%, as policymakers respond to slowing job growth and rising unemployment, even as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Recent labor market data showed just 22,000 jobs added in August, with earlier months revised downward, while the unemployment rate has climbed to around 4.3%. Inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred PCE index, has edged higher in recent months, partly due to tariffs pushing up consumer prices. Markets have largely priced in the cut, with investors watching the Fed’s updated “dot plot” for clues on whether more reductions will follow in October and December. The decision ...
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Canada’s Population Growth and the National Bank of Canada’s Report

 

According to a report by the National Bank of Canada, Canada is caught in a “population trap” for the first time in modern history and needs to limit immigration to escape it. A population trap is when the population is growing so fast that all available savings are needed to maintain the existing capital-labour ratio, making any increase in living standards impossible. 

National Bank’s report joins the growing chorus of concern that the influx of newcomers over the past two years, many of whom are temporary workers or students, is too much for the economy to handle.

Canada’s population grew by 1.2 million in 2023, a “staggering” amount when you consider that the next biggest surge was when Newfoundland joined the nation in 1949. From a global perspective, Canada’s population growth of 3.2% last year was five times higher than the average of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations. 

The economists say that Canada currently lacks the infrastructure and capital stock to adequately absorb current population growth and improve its standard of living. The strain is most evident in housing, with National saying the shortfall has reached a record of only one housing start for every 4.2 people entering the working-age population. Government programs are underway to address this, but to meet demand and reduce housing inflation, Canada would need to double its housing construction capacity to about 700,000 starts a year.
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