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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Canada’s Population Growth and the National Bank of Canada’s Report

 

According to a report by the National Bank of Canada, Canada is caught in a “population trap” for the first time in modern history and needs to limit immigration to escape it. A population trap is when the population is growing so fast that all available savings are needed to maintain the existing capital-labour ratio, making any increase in living standards impossible. 

National Bank’s report joins the growing chorus of concern that the influx of newcomers over the past two years, many of whom are temporary workers or students, is too much for the economy to handle.

Canada’s population grew by 1.2 million in 2023, a “staggering” amount when you consider that the next biggest surge was when Newfoundland joined the nation in 1949. From a global perspective, Canada’s population growth of 3.2% last year was five times higher than the average of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations. 

The economists say that Canada currently lacks the infrastructure and capital stock to adequately absorb current population growth and improve its standard of living. The strain is most evident in housing, with National saying the shortfall has reached a record of only one housing start for every 4.2 people entering the working-age population. Government programs are underway to address this, but to meet demand and reduce housing inflation, Canada would need to double its housing construction capacity to about 700,000 starts a year.
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