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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Holds, the Loonie Slides, and Gas Prices Climb

  Thursday, July 16, 2026 Here's what's moving markets and your wallet today — from the Bank of Canada's latest rate call to a fresh jump at the pumps. 1. The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% this week, and its accompanying Monetary Policy Report flagged that inflation is still running hot enough to keep policymakers cautious. The Bank now expects overall growth of just 0.7% for 2026, picking up to 1.8% in 2027 and 2028 as exports recover and businesses adjust to the new trade landscape with the U.S. Inflation is projected to ease toward 2.5% in the second half of the year and return to the Bank's 2% target by early 2027 — assuming oil prices keep cooling as expected. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage holders and HELOC borrowers get another few months of payment stability, but don't expect a cut soon — the Bank wants to see inflation actually fall before it moves again. If you're...
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Canada’s Population Growth and the National Bank of Canada’s Report

 

According to a report by the National Bank of Canada, Canada is caught in a “population trap” for the first time in modern history and needs to limit immigration to escape it. A population trap is when the population is growing so fast that all available savings are needed to maintain the existing capital-labour ratio, making any increase in living standards impossible. 

National Bank’s report joins the growing chorus of concern that the influx of newcomers over the past two years, many of whom are temporary workers or students, is too much for the economy to handle.

Canada’s population grew by 1.2 million in 2023, a “staggering” amount when you consider that the next biggest surge was when Newfoundland joined the nation in 1949. From a global perspective, Canada’s population growth of 3.2% last year was five times higher than the average of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations. 

The economists say that Canada currently lacks the infrastructure and capital stock to adequately absorb current population growth and improve its standard of living. The strain is most evident in housing, with National saying the shortfall has reached a record of only one housing start for every 4.2 people entering the working-age population. Government programs are underway to address this, but to meet demand and reduce housing inflation, Canada would need to double its housing construction capacity to about 700,000 starts a year.
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