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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Consumer and Business Insolvencies Continue to Rise in November

 

According to the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy, consumer and business insolvencies continued to rise in November. Consumer insolvencies were up 24% in November compared with a year ago, while business insolvencies rose 36.8%. The data shows insolvencies for both consumers and businesses continued to rise from pandemic lows.

Business insolvencies rose 41.8% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. However, consumer insolvencies in the third quarter were still below pre-pandemic levels. In November, that trend continued — business insolvencies were higher than in November 2019, while consumer insolvencies were a little lower.

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