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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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ECB Maintains Record High Interest Rate Amid Debate Over Timing of Cuts

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key interest rate at a record high of 4% . The decision comes amid a growing debate over the timing of cuts, with some economists predicting a policy pivot starting in April and rate cuts of 150 basis points this year .

The ECB’s decision to maintain the interest rate at its current level is aimed at battling inflation, which has been ravaging the economy. The head of the ECB has warned that cutting interest rates too soon could threaten Europe’s progress in battling inflation.


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