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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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ECB Maintains Record High Interest Rate Amid Debate Over Timing of Cuts

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key interest rate at a record high of 4% . The decision comes amid a growing debate over the timing of cuts, with some economists predicting a policy pivot starting in April and rate cuts of 150 basis points this year .

The ECB’s decision to maintain the interest rate at its current level is aimed at battling inflation, which has been ravaging the economy. The head of the ECB has warned that cutting interest rates too soon could threaten Europe’s progress in battling inflation.


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