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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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ECB Maintains Record High Interest Rate Amid Debate Over Timing of Cuts

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key interest rate at a record high of 4% . The decision comes amid a growing debate over the timing of cuts, with some economists predicting a policy pivot starting in April and rate cuts of 150 basis points this year .

The ECB’s decision to maintain the interest rate at its current level is aimed at battling inflation, which has been ravaging the economy. The head of the ECB has warned that cutting interest rates too soon could threaten Europe’s progress in battling inflation.


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