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Markets Slip as Investors Bet on Extended U.S.–Iran Ceasefire

  Stocks Edge Lower as Investors Hope U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Will Hold Stocks drifted lower today as markets balanced cautious optimism over a potential extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire with persistent geopolitical and inflation concerns. Recent trading sessions have shown that even modest signs of diplomatic progress can meaningfully shift investor sentiment. Asian and U.S. markets rallied earlier this week on hopes that Washington and Tehran would continue negotiations, helping unwind some of the war-driven risk premiums that had pushed oil and volatility higher. Despite the pullback, investors remain hopeful that the ceasefire—currently set to expire soon—will be extended, giving negotiators more time to work toward a longer-term agreement. Reports indicate both sides are considering adding another two weeks to the pause, a move that has already helped push Brent crude below the recent peak of nearly US$120 per barrel. Lower oil prices have eased pressure on inflation expecta...
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European Stocks Surge and Bond Yields Ease as Markets Scale Back Bets on Rate Cuts

 

European stocks surged to a fresh two-year high, and bond yields eased as markets scaled back ambitious bets at the end of 2023 on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. The S&P 500 also edged higher, with the index poised to set a new record closing high, at the start of a week packed with big corporate earnings, European inflation data, Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings and U.S. employment data.

The market is trying to understand the outlook for the U.S. economy as it is unlikely to require the deep interest rate cuts by the Fed it has priced in. Absent geopolitical shocks, the U.S. economy will grow better than expected with just a few areas underperforming.

The surge in European stocks and the easing of bond yields can be attributed to the markets scaling back their bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.



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