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5 Things to Know Today: US Inflation Day, Canada’s Job Losses and Oil Near $106 | Oct. 14, 2026

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Good morning. The biggest number of the day lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it could shape where mortgage rates and the loonie go next. Here are the five things worth knowing before you start your day. 1 US inflation report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET September U.S. CPI is the last major inflation reading before the Fed meets Oct. 27–28. Economists expect headline inflation to climb to roughly 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4% in August, a gasoline-driven jump of about 0.6% on the month, while core inflation is seen cooling to around 0.2% month over month. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, but September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, and markets now see roughly a one-in-four chance of another hike in October, with December still largely priced in. What it means for you: A hotter-than-expected print can push bond yields higher, and Canadian fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year bond. A cooler one eases the pressu...

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Federal Reserve to Hold Interest Rates Steady Despite Market Anticipation

 

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold on interest rate cuts as they assess the economy and inflation . The policymakers are likely to signal that they expect to wait until they’re confident that inflation, which has tumbled from its peak, is reliably moving to their 2% target. 

The central bank’s benchmark rate influences the cost of most consumer and business loans, and companies, investors, and individuals have been eager for the central bank to ease the cost of borrowing. However, the economy remains healthy and doesn’t appear to need the stimulative benefits of a rate cut, which can spur more borrowing and spending and could even re-ignite inflation. The stock market is near a record high, and the yield on the influential 10-year Treasury note is well below its peak of nearly 5% last fall.

The Federal Reserve will likely move closer Wednesday to cutting its key interest rate after nearly two years of hikes that were intended to fight the worst inflation in decades. Yet it may not provide much of a hint about when — or how fast — it will do so. Most Fed watchers think the central bank’s first rate reduction will occur in May or June.














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