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Markets Digest Hot U.S. Inflation as Iran Tensions Keep Oil Elevated

Publication:  moneysavings.ca / Canadian Money Brief  Date:  Tuesday, May 13, 2026 The TSX opens cautiously Wednesday after hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data rattled Wall Street on Tuesday, while Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to lift energy stocks and pressure the loonie toward 1.35 against the greenback. TSX ~34,291 S&P 500 7,400.96 ▼0.16% WTI Oil ~$102/bbl ▲ Gold ~$4,721 USD/oz ▼ USD/CAD ~1.35 US CPI Apr 3.8% ▲ (est. 3.7%) Market Overview Canadian investors are starting Wednesday on a cautious note following a mixed session south of the border. U.S. equities dipped Tuesday after April's consumer price index came in at 3.8% — a touch above the 3.7% consensus forecast and the highest reading since May 2023 — while the core rate held at 2.8%, also above expectations. The data has effectively closed the door on any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with traders now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike by April 2027. For Canadians, the ripple effects...

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Federal Reserve to Hold Interest Rates Steady Despite Market Anticipation

 

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold on interest rate cuts as they assess the economy and inflation . The policymakers are likely to signal that they expect to wait until they’re confident that inflation, which has tumbled from its peak, is reliably moving to their 2% target. 

The central bank’s benchmark rate influences the cost of most consumer and business loans, and companies, investors, and individuals have been eager for the central bank to ease the cost of borrowing. However, the economy remains healthy and doesn’t appear to need the stimulative benefits of a rate cut, which can spur more borrowing and spending and could even re-ignite inflation. The stock market is near a record high, and the yield on the influential 10-year Treasury note is well below its peak of nearly 5% last fall.

The Federal Reserve will likely move closer Wednesday to cutting its key interest rate after nearly two years of hikes that were intended to fight the worst inflation in decades. Yet it may not provide much of a hint about when — or how fast — it will do so. Most Fed watchers think the central bank’s first rate reduction will occur in May or June.














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