What to Expect from the Bank of Canada on July 15 — And What It Means for Your Mortgage
The next rate decision is just 17 days away. With inflation running hot, Canada in a technical recession, and mortgage rates on a knife's edge, here is everything you need to know before the announcement. The Short Answer: A Hold Is Almost Certain On July 15, 2026 , the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its sixth consecutive interest rate decision since October 2025 — and virtually every indicator points to another hold at 2.25% . The Bank has not moved its overnight rate since it cut to 2.25% last fall. After nine total cuts between June 2024 and October 2025, the easing cycle is effectively paused. Markets currently price the probability of a hike on July 15 at just 1%, and the chance of a cut at around the same slim odds. In other words: almost no one expects anything to change on announcement day. But a "hold" decision does not mean nothing matters. July 15 is one of four dates each year when the BoC releases a full Monetary Policy Report (MPR) alongside its rate ...
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