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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Mixed Bank Earnings Offset Cooler-Than-Expected Inflation News

 


On Friday, January 12th, 2024, the US stock market closed with little change as mixed bank earnings offset cooler-than-expected inflation news that buoyed hopes for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 118.04 points, or 0.31%, to 37,592.98. The S&P 500 gained 3.59 points, or 0.08 %, at 4,783.83 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.58 points, or 0.02%, to 14,972.76.

Bank of America’s fourth-quarter profit shrank as the lender took $3.7 billion in one-off charges. Wells Fargo’s warning of a 7% to 9% drop in net interest income in 2024 sent the bank’s shares down 3.34%. UnitedHealth fell on higher-than-expected medical costs. Tesla fell after flagging output hit from Red Sea disruption.

The data showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December as the cost of goods such as food and diesel fuel declined, while prices for services were unchanged for a third consecutive month, in contrast to Thursday’s hotter-than-expected consumer inflation reading. Expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by the Fed in March moved up to 79.5%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, from 73.2% in the prior session.


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