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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Oil Market in for Uncomfortable Few Weeks After Drone Strike

 


On January 29, 2024, a drone strike killed three US soldiers in the Middle East, escalating regional conflicts and irritating oil markets. The attack’s near-term impact on oil supply is expected to be limited, but the situation is still volatile. Prosper Trading Academy CEO Scott Bauer and Eurasia Group Middle East Practice Head Ayham Kamel warn that this is not going to be a comfortable few weeks.

The oil market is already on its heels due to weak demand. Though geopolitical tensions could move prices, the impact appears muted as risks are already priced in. Bauer sees crude oil in a bearish macro position and is enthusiastic about the current volatility for traders, suggesting investors look to sell.

In conclusion, the drone strike has created an uncomfortable situation for the oil market. While the attack’s near-term impact on oil supply is expected to be limited, the situation is still volatile and could lead to further disruptions in the future.

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