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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Red Sea Shipping Crisis Worsens After US and UK Strike Yemen

 

The Red Sea, a vital waterway for global trade, has become a hotspot of conflict and insecurity after the US and UK launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been attacking commercial vessels with missiles and drones.

The airstrikes, which began on Thursday, were a response to the 27th Houthi attack on shipping since November, according to the US military. The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, have been targeting ships in the southern Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a narrow passage that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

The escalation of violence has disrupted the flow of oil, gas, grains, and manufactured goods through the region, which accounts for about 12% of global seaborne trade. Many shipping companies have suspended or diverted their operations, opting for the longer and more costly route around Africa. Some insurers have also raised their premiums or restricted their coverage for vessels passing through the area.

The shipping crisis has added to the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen, where a civil war has been raging since 2015. The UN estimates that more than 20 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, and that millions are on the brink of famine. The airstrikes have also raised fears of a wider regional conflict, as Iran and its allies clash with the US and its allies over various issues, including the nuclear deal and Israel’s war in Gaza.

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