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Macklem Just Raised the Inflation Alarm: What Monday’s CPI Means for Your Wallet

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Sunday, October 18, 2026  |  Written ahead of Monday’s 8:30 am ET inflation release Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has just told Canadians what the central bank is about to say on October 28: its inflation forecast is going up, and by a lot. The reason is oil. With the Middle East conflict dragging on, shipments still curtailed and refinery capacity damaged, he said the risk that inflation broadens and lingers has gone up. Speaking to reporters from Bangkok on Saturday, he framed the coming decision as a simple question: will inflation drift back toward 2% on its own, or does the Bank need to raise rates to nudge it there? Monday is the first real clue. Here is what is landing, what economists expect, and what it could mean for your gas bill, your grocery cart, your heating costs and your mortgage. 3.0% August CPI, year over year 3.2% September consensus (Reuters poll) 2.25% BoC policy rate, unchanged for nearly a year Oct 28 Rat...
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US Markets Slip as Earnings Pour In Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

 

Wall Street limped early Tuesday with corporate earnings rolling in and the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision imminent. 

Futures for the S&P 500 and futures for the Dow Jones industrials each slipped less than 0.2% before the bell. UPS tumbled more than 7% after the package delivery company unexpectedly dialed back expectations for the year. General Motors climbed nearly 8% as the automaker’s profit and sales rose by double-digit percentages last year. Microsoft, Google and Starbucks report their latest financial results after the bell Tuesday. Also Tuesday, the US reports on job openings for November and the Conference Board releases consumer confidence data for January. 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will make its next decision on what to do with interest rates. Most expect the Fed will no make any changes, but there is hope that it may cut rates in March. That would be the first downward move since the Fed began dramatically raising interest rates two years ago to get inflation under control. 

There is a lot of evidence suggesting that the Fed may be able to pull off a so-called economic “soft landing” after a period of accelerated inflation. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled further last month even as the economy kept growing briskly, a trend sure to be welcomed at the White House as President Joe Biden seeks re-election in a race that could pivot on his economic stewardship. On Friday, the U.S. government will release its monthly jobs report. Economists expect continued growth in hiring, but at a cooler pace. That’s exactly what the Fed wants to see after surging U.S. growth contributed to rising prices.


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