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The Mortgage Renewal Wave Just Peaked — Here's What the Data Actually Shows

Published August 30, 2026 For three years, "the mortgage renewal wall" has been the scariest phrase in Canadian personal finance — the idea that a flood of ultra-cheap, pandemic-era mortgages would come due at much higher rates and trigger a wave of forced sales. That wall is now mostly behind us. Two new 2026 surveys, one from Royal LePage and one from Rates.ca, show what actually happened when it hit. The short version: it hurt, budgets tightened hard for a lot of people, but the mass default many feared simply didn't show up. The last big group is renewing right now Royal LePage's 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey, released August 19 and based on a Leger poll of 1,127 Canadians renewing this year, pins down where things stand: about 12% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages are five-year, fixed-payment loans taken out during the 2020–2022 ultra-low-rate window, and this is their last major renewal wave. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate sat at just 0.25% through m...
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Toronto’s Housing Market Plummets to a 13-Year Low Amidst Higher Mortgage Rates

 


Toronto’s housing market experienced a significant decline in 2023, with home sales dropping to a 13-year low. According to a report by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, the number of home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) fell by 11% compared to the previous year . This decline can be attributed to the rise in mortgage rates, which made it difficult for potential buyers to afford homes.

The average home sold price in the GTA for November 2023 was $1,051,180, which is a 7% drop compared to the previous month . The report also states that the GTA housing market has been in a deep buyer’s market for the past few months, with the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) being 40% in November 2023. This means that there are comparatively more properties available for purchase than buyers in the market, giving buyers more leverage in negotiating prices and terms. However, the GTA is now once again in a balanced market, with buyers losing favour as sellers regain some control in the market .


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