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Mortgage Renewal Shock 2026: What Canadian Homeowners Need to Know

  The Reality: Over 60% of Canadian mortgages are renewing in 2025 and 2026—many at rates significantly higher than their original terms. While some homeowners will see relief, others face payment increases of 15–40%. This guide will help you understand what's happening, run the numbers, and explore your options before your renewal date arrives. The Big Picture: What's Happening in 2026 Canada is experiencing a historic wave of mortgage renewals. A large cohort of mortgages originated during the pandemic's historic low-rate period—when rates hovered around 2% or lower in 2020–2021—are now maturing and resetting at today's rates. The Bank of Canada staff estimate that roughly 60% of outstanding mortgages will renew in 2025 and 2026, making this the most significant renewal cycle in decades. In 2026, the average mortgage renewal increase is projected to moderate to around 6%, though individual experiences vary dramatically depending on mortgage type and renewal timing. W...
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TSX futures rise ahead of BoC meeting, metal prices boost materials sector

 

The S&P/TSX index futures were up 0.3% on Tuesday morning, as investors awaited the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and the fourth-quarter results of Canadian National Railway later in the day.

The materials sector, which accounts for about 10% of the index, was set to gain from higher gold and copper prices, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and hopes of more stimulus from China, the top consumer of metals.

Gold prices rebounded from a two-week low hit on Monday, while copper and other industrial metals advanced on expectations that Beijing would announce more measures to boost its economy, which has been hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

Oil prices, however, eased slightly as traders weighed the geopolitical risks in several regions, such as Iran, Iraq, and Libya, with the supply disruptions in the U.S. and the resumption of production in Libya.

The focus of the market was on the Bank of Canada’s meeting on Wednesday, where the central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5%, but also signal its stance on future rate cuts.

Money market participants are now pricing in a 22.4% chance of a rate cut in March and a 50.2% chance in April, according to Citigroup analysts.

“We expect an overall hawkish meeting, with officials emphasizing a commitment to 2% inflation and pushing back on expectations for imminent rate cuts, but also expressing more confidence than in previous meetings that rates are appropriately restrictive,” they said in a note.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 17.78 points, or 0.1%, at 20,924.30 on Monday, boosted by gains in financials and real estate.

Meanwhile, railroad operator Canadian National Railway is expected to report its fourth-quarter results later in the day, which could provide some insight into the impact of the ongoing rail blockades by indigenous protesters.

Wood products firm West Fraser announced the closure of its Fraser Lake sawmill, which is expected to affect 175 employees and the company’s production capacity.

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