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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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TSX rises as energy and consumer staples lead




The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 71.66 points, or 0.3%, at 21,061.88 on Monday, approaching its 20-month high of 21,074.91 reached last week. The energy and consumer staples sectors were the main drivers of the gains, as oil prices recovered some of their losses and investors digested a Bank of Canada business survey.

The survey showed that Canadian firms saw their order books decline as interest rates crimped consumer spending, and they expected inflation to ease despite increased concerns over wages for the next year. The report could keep the door open for interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, according to some economists.

The energy sector rose 0.9% as U.S. crude oil futures settled at $72.50 a barrel, down 0.3%. The consumer staples sector added 0.8%, boosted by shares of Saputo Inc and Loblaw Co, which climbed about 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively. The utilities sector also ended 1.1% higher.

Trading volumes were lower than usual, with U.S. markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. On Tuesday, Canada will release its consumer price index report for December, which could offer more clues on the central bank’s policy outlook. Economists expect inflation to rise to 3.4% from 3.1% in November.

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