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5 Things to Know Today: US Inflation Day, Canada’s Job Losses and Oil Near $106 | Oct. 14, 2026

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Good morning. The biggest number of the day lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it could shape where mortgage rates and the loonie go next. Here are the five things worth knowing before you start your day. 1 US inflation report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET September U.S. CPI is the last major inflation reading before the Fed meets Oct. 27–28. Economists expect headline inflation to climb to roughly 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4% in August, a gasoline-driven jump of about 0.6% on the month, while core inflation is seen cooling to around 0.2% month over month. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, but September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, and markets now see roughly a one-in-four chance of another hike in October, with December still largely priced in. What it means for you: A hotter-than-expected print can push bond yields higher, and Canadian fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year bond. A cooler one eases the pressu...
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TSX rises as energy and consumer staples lead




The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 71.66 points, or 0.3%, at 21,061.88 on Monday, approaching its 20-month high of 21,074.91 reached last week. The energy and consumer staples sectors were the main drivers of the gains, as oil prices recovered some of their losses and investors digested a Bank of Canada business survey.

The survey showed that Canadian firms saw their order books decline as interest rates crimped consumer spending, and they expected inflation to ease despite increased concerns over wages for the next year. The report could keep the door open for interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, according to some economists.

The energy sector rose 0.9% as U.S. crude oil futures settled at $72.50 a barrel, down 0.3%. The consumer staples sector added 0.8%, boosted by shares of Saputo Inc and Loblaw Co, which climbed about 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively. The utilities sector also ended 1.1% higher.

Trading volumes were lower than usual, with U.S. markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. On Tuesday, Canada will release its consumer price index report for December, which could offer more clues on the central bank’s policy outlook. Economists expect inflation to rise to 3.4% from 3.1% in November.

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