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Markets Slip as Investors Bet on Extended U.S.–Iran Ceasefire

  Stocks Edge Lower as Investors Hope U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Will Hold Stocks drifted lower today as markets balanced cautious optimism over a potential extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire with persistent geopolitical and inflation concerns. Recent trading sessions have shown that even modest signs of diplomatic progress can meaningfully shift investor sentiment. Asian and U.S. markets rallied earlier this week on hopes that Washington and Tehran would continue negotiations, helping unwind some of the war-driven risk premiums that had pushed oil and volatility higher. Despite the pullback, investors remain hopeful that the ceasefire—currently set to expire soon—will be extended, giving negotiators more time to work toward a longer-term agreement. Reports indicate both sides are considering adding another two weeks to the pause, a move that has already helped push Brent crude below the recent peak of nearly US$120 per barrel. Lower oil prices have eased pressure on inflation expecta...
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US Stock Futures Retreat After Intel’s Gloomy Outlook

 

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US stock futures retreated on Friday after Intel’s first-quarter outlook fell well short of Wall Street expectations, somewhat denting the AI-fueled hopes that have helped lift stocks to record highs. 

Intel shares fell over 10% in premarket trading, with peers AMD and Nvidia also taking a slight knock. The S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2% after a winning Thursday saw the benchmark close at another record high. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures also lost around 0.2%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 sank nearly 0.5%. Techs led the way lower after a gloomy outlook from Intel, as investors awaited a key inflation reading seen as influential in the timing of an interest rate cut.

The release of the PCE index for December painted a rosy inflation picture for investors, however. “Core” PCE, the inflation gauge commonly known as the Fed’s preferred measure, fell below 3% on an annual basis, the slowest rate of growth since March 2021. That number, combined with a hotter-than-expected early estimate on fourth quarter US GDP, could further the notion that the US economy is headed for a “soft landing.”

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States pay for goods and services. It is released each month in the Personal Income and Outlays report and is used to calculate the GDP and inflation . The PCE index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. The latest release of the PCE index for December 2023 shows that the “core” PCE, the inflation gauge commonly known as the Fed’s preferred measure, fell below 3% on an annual basis, the slowest rate of growth since March 2021.


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