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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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US Stock Futures Retreat After Intel’s Gloomy Outlook

 

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US stock futures retreated on Friday after Intel’s first-quarter outlook fell well short of Wall Street expectations, somewhat denting the AI-fueled hopes that have helped lift stocks to record highs. 

Intel shares fell over 10% in premarket trading, with peers AMD and Nvidia also taking a slight knock. The S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2% after a winning Thursday saw the benchmark close at another record high. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures also lost around 0.2%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 sank nearly 0.5%. Techs led the way lower after a gloomy outlook from Intel, as investors awaited a key inflation reading seen as influential in the timing of an interest rate cut.

The release of the PCE index for December painted a rosy inflation picture for investors, however. “Core” PCE, the inflation gauge commonly known as the Fed’s preferred measure, fell below 3% on an annual basis, the slowest rate of growth since March 2021. That number, combined with a hotter-than-expected early estimate on fourth quarter US GDP, could further the notion that the US economy is headed for a “soft landing.”

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States pay for goods and services. It is released each month in the Personal Income and Outlays report and is used to calculate the GDP and inflation . The PCE index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. The latest release of the PCE index for December 2023 shows that the “core” PCE, the inflation gauge commonly known as the Fed’s preferred measure, fell below 3% on an annual basis, the slowest rate of growth since March 2021.


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