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Markets Rebound as Hopes for Iran–U.S. Dialogue Ease Geopolitical Tensions

U.S. stock futures edged higher on Wednesday as signs of potential diplomatic movement in the Iran–U.S. standoff helped calm volatile markets. Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose about 0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 0.2% after a turbulent prior session.  The shift in sentiment followed reports that Iran has quietly approached the United States to discuss terms for ending the escalating conflict , a development that helped cool fears of further disruption in global energy markets. This diplomatic signal contributed to a rebound after Tuesday’s sharp sell-off, when concerns over widening conflict and rising oil prices rattled investors.  The conflict, now in its fifth day, has seen continued strikes and mounting casualties, adding to market unease. Iran is preparing for the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in recent attacks, while regional tensions remain high.  Despite the ongoing uncertainty, Wednesda...
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US Stocks Slip, Bond Yields Rise as Rate-Cut Bets Cool



US stocks slid on Wednesday as bond yields rose, as optimism for fast interest-rate cuts waned ahead of fresh jobs data and the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 0.3% while the benchmark S&P 500 (GSPC) slipped about 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) dropped roughly 0.7% after a bruising session that saw tech stocks shed almost 1.6%.

Hopes that the year-end market rally would roll on into 2024 took a battering on Tuesday as stock indexes and bond prices sank in tandem for their worst start to a year in decades. Bonds are headed lower for a fourth day, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) up near 4%.

Traders have started pulling back on bets on Fed interest-rate cuts, with 74% now pricing in a March pivot, compared with 89% a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Minutes of the Fed’s December meeting due later could give a window into how near officials think they are to easing up on tightening, so they can nail a “soft landing” for the economy.

Eyes will also be on the JOLTS report on job openings, given the unexpected resilience of the labor market has fed into expectations of a Fed shift. Wednesday’s data will set expectations for the December US monthly jobs report coming Friday.

After a rough first day of trading, investor attention on Wednesday will turn to the labor market with the monthly update on job openings and turnover — known as the JOLTS report — set for release at 10:00 a.m. ET.

A decline in job openings throughout 2023 served as an early indicator the US labor market was slowing, and Wednesday’s data will serve as a key table-setter ahead of Friday’s December jobs report.


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