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Mark Carney: The Economist Who Took on Trump and Won

  Mark Carney, a former central banker, has emerged as Canada’s prime minister following a dramatic election that reshaped the political landscape. His victory was fueled by a surge of nationalism in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and trade policies. Trump’s threats to annex Canada as the “51st state” and impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods galvanized voters, turning Carney’s Liberal Party from underdogs to champions of Canadian sovereignty. Carney’s campaign centered on defending Canada’s independence and rebuilding its economy to reduce reliance on the United States. His experience as governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England lent credibility to his promises of economic resilience. In his victory speech, Carney declared, “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen”. The election results marked a stunning comeback for the Liberals, who were initially projected to lose to the oppositi...
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Canada’s Economy Surges: Q4 Growth Exceeds Expectations By Copilot

 

In a welcome turn of events, Canada’s economy demonstrated resilience by surpassing expectations in the fourth quarter of 2023. Here are the key highlights:

Fourth-Quarter Growth

  • Annualized Rate: The Canadian economy expanded at an impressive annualized rate of 1.0% during Q4. This growth rate exceeded both the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) conservative 0.0% forecast and the 0.8% growth rate anticipated by analysts in a Reuters poll.

  • Exports Fuel Growth: The surge in quarterly growth was primarily driven by a rise in exports, even as imports declined. This positive momentum reflects the country’s ability to navigate global challenges.

  • Business Investment Moderates: While exports played a pivotal role, a decline in business investment acted as a moderating factor. Balancing these dynamics is crucial for sustained economic progress.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

  • Central Bank’s Dilemma: The Bank of Canada faces a delicate balancing act. With inflation still running above its 2% target at 2.9%, the central bank must carefully consider its next moves.

  • Interest Rates: The BoC’s focus has shifted from rate hikes to potential rate cuts. The current policy rate stands at a 22-year high of 5%. The bank’s next announcement is scheduled for March 6, where it is expected to maintain rates.

  • Market Expectations: Money markets predict a rate cut in June, with bets fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut in July. Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators for clues on the central bank’s future actions.

January’s Momentum

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) likely grew by 0.4% in January, according to Statistics Canada data. Sectors such as educational services and health care contributed positively, while mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction faced headwinds.

As Canada continues its economic journey, policymakers, businesses, and investors remain vigilant. The robust Q4 performance provides hope for sustained growth, but challenges persist. 

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