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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canada’s Inflation Rate Eases to 2.9% in January

 


Canada’s annual rate of inflation slowed in January, with prices rising 2.9 per cent, according to Statistics Canada. This deceleration was primarily driven by lower year-over-year prices for gasoline. Excluding volatile items like energy and food, the core inflation rate remained relatively stable.

Factors Influencing the Slowdown:

  1. Gasoline Prices: The decline in gasoline prices contributed significantly to the easing of inflation. As global oil markets adjusted, consumers benefited from more affordable fuel at the pump.

  2. Grocery Costs: Price growth for groceries also decelerated, rising 3.4 per cent annually in January compared to 4.7 per cent in December. This moderation in food prices played a role in curbing overall inflation.

  3. Base-Year Effect: The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at a slower pace year over year in January due to a base-year effect. The monthly increase in January 2023 was smaller than that in January 2022.

While this slowdown is a positive sign, it’s essential to monitor inflation trends closely. The central bank will continue to assess economic conditions and adjust monetary policy as needed. As we navigate the delicate balance between price stability and economic growth, Canadians can expect ongoing discussions about inflationary pressures and their impact on household budgets.

In summary, Canada’s inflation rate has taken a breather, but vigilance remains key as we move forward in 2024.


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