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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canada’s Labour Market Sees Positive Growth: 37,300 New Jobs Added

 

In a welcome development for the Canadian economy, the labour market added 37,300 jobs in January. This surge in employment comes as a breath of fresh air, especially considering the challenges posed by the pandemic and economic fluctuations.

Key Highlights:

  1. Unemployment Rate Declines: The unemployment rate dipped to 5.7 per cent, marking the first decline since December 2022. This positive trend signals a potential recovery and renewed confidence in the job market.

  2. Part-Time Work on the Rise: The increase in jobs was primarily driven by a surge in part-time employment, which saw a gain of 48,900 positions. However, the number of full-time jobs experienced a slight decline of 11,600 during the same period.

  3. Economic Resilience: Despite global uncertainties, Canada’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience. The labour force’s adaptability and employers’ willingness to hire contribute to this encouraging trend.

As we move forward, it’s essential to monitor these developments closely. While the current data paints an optimistic picture, sustained efforts are necessary to ensure stable and inclusive growth.



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