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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Canada’s Labour Market Sees Positive Growth: 37,300 New Jobs Added

 

In a welcome development for the Canadian economy, the labour market added 37,300 jobs in January. This surge in employment comes as a breath of fresh air, especially considering the challenges posed by the pandemic and economic fluctuations.

Key Highlights:

  1. Unemployment Rate Declines: The unemployment rate dipped to 5.7 per cent, marking the first decline since December 2022. This positive trend signals a potential recovery and renewed confidence in the job market.

  2. Part-Time Work on the Rise: The increase in jobs was primarily driven by a surge in part-time employment, which saw a gain of 48,900 positions. However, the number of full-time jobs experienced a slight decline of 11,600 during the same period.

  3. Economic Resilience: Despite global uncertainties, Canada’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience. The labour force’s adaptability and employers’ willingness to hire contribute to this encouraging trend.

As we move forward, it’s essential to monitor these developments closely. While the current data paints an optimistic picture, sustained efforts are necessary to ensure stable and inclusive growth.



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